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I. Market focus
The news background in the financial markets was rather limited at the beginning of Tuesday’s session. The most important report of the morning session was that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts. The IMF downgraded its outlook for the first time since July 2016 due to rising trade protectionism in the world. According to the fund’s updated estimates, the global economy will grow by 3.7 percent in both 2018 and 2019, down 0.2 percentage points from an earlier forecast. The growth projections were lowered for the U.S. (from 2.7 percent to 2.5 percent), China (from 6.4 percent to 6.2 percent), the Eurozone (from 2.2 percent to 2.0 percent), as well as emerging economies. Despite the fact that the downward revision of the growth forecasts is very significant news, the markets have not responded to it. However, this report is unlikely to add optimism to market participants, and it is possible that the risk appetite will continue to decrease during today’s session.
Among the macroeconomic data received by the beginning of the European session, it should be noted the National Australia Bank’s (NAB) report on business confidence in Australia. According to the released data, the indices of business conditions and business confidence continue to remain markedly above their long-term averages. Moreover, both indicators showed a moderate improvement in September. The survey provided support to the Australian dollar, but a rather moderate.
Today’s session will not be busy with scheduled events and publications of important macroeconomic data. The most significant reports may be data on consumer sentiment in Australia from Westpac (23:30 GMT). Attention should be also paid to the comments of the deputy governor of the Bank of England (BoE) Ben Broadbent (14:35 GMT).
II. The market highlights are:
The National Australia Bank (NAB) reported on Tuesday its business confidence index edged up 1 point to +6 index points in September from an upwardly revised +5 last month (originally +4), staying around its long-run average. A reading above zero signals an improvement in business confidence, and a reading below zero indicates a deterioration. Meanwhile, the NAB’s business conditions index also ticked up 1 point to +15 index points in September from a downwardly revised +14 (originally +15). According to the report, the rise in the month was driven by an improvement in the employment index (+3 points m-o-m to +12 in September). However, this gain was partially offset by a small drop in trading conditions (-1 point m-o-m to +17), while profitability was unchanged (at +14). Conditions improved in recreation and personal services and edged up in manufacturing and wholesale. Commenting on the September Business Survey, Alan Oster, the NAB’s Chief economist, noted “The survey points to ongoing strength in business activity into the latter part of 2018 with profitability, turnover and employment at high levels. That said the survey suggests ongoing meek price pressures despite the robust conditions in the business sector. This is in line with our view of the economy more generally, where we see ongoing above-trend growth, but only a gradual increase in price pressures more broadly.”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Tuesday it lowered its growth forecasts for the global economy to 3.7 percent for both 2018 and 2019, down 0.2 percentage points from its previous forecast. In its latest version of the World Economic Outlook (WEO), the fund noted that the downward revision “reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills”. Individually, the IMF forecasts the U.S. GDP growth this year of 2.9 percent decelerating to 2.5 percent in 2019, which is 0.2 points slower than in its prior estimate. Meanwhile, China’s economic growth is projected to slow from 6.6 percent this year to 6.2 percent next year, a downgrade of 0.2 points. The Eurozone’s economy is expected to grow 2.0 percent this year, down from an earlier estimate of 2.2 percent, and to slow to 1.9 in 2019. Emerging markets saw significant cuts to their growth forecasts in the IMF report as well.
III. Market Situation
The currency pair EUR/USD traded near the opening level due to the lack of new catalysts. The news the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts for the first time since July 2016 due to rising trade protectionism and instability in emerging markets had a slight impact on the pair’s performance. The fund lowered its global growth projections to 3.7 percent for 2018 and 2019 from 3.9 percent it projected earlier this year. The IMF forecasts the U.S. GDP growth this year of 2.9 percent decelerating to 2.5 percent in 2019, which is 0.2 points slower than its prior estimate. The Eurozone’s economy is expected to grow 2.0 percent this year, down from an earlier estimate of 2.2 percent, and to slow to 1.9 in 2019. Today, investors will continue to monitor the dynamics of the U.S. dollar, while preparing for tomorrow's release of the U.S. producer price index (PPI). Resistance level - $1.1594 (high of October 3). Support level - $1.1393 (low of August 20).
The currency pair GBP/USD traded slightly higher, as the U.S. currency weakened. With an empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, traders will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. In addition, attention will be paid to the comments of the deputy governor of the Bank of England (BoE) Ben Broadbent. Tomorrow, market participants will receive the UK’s data on GDP for August. In July, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) started publishing its monthly GDP figure in addition to the usual quarterly series. After several months of relatively strong growth, a smaller increase in August will not come as a surprise. Economists’ forecast an increase of 0.1 percent for August following a 0.3 percent advance in the prior month. Resistance level - $1.3217 (high of September 26). Support level - $1.2921 (low of October 4).
The currency pair AUD/USD rose slightly, reaching its high of October 4, helped by a drop in the U.S. dollar index and favorable data from Australia, which indicated an improvement in country’s business confidence. The National Australia Bank (NAB) reported its business confidence index edged up 1 point to +6 index points in September from an upwardly revised +5 last month (originally +4), staying around its long-run average. A reading above zero signals an improvement in business confidence, and a reading below zero indicates a deterioration. Meanwhile, the NAB’s business conditions index also ticked up 1 point to +15 index points in September from a downwardly revised +14 (originally +15). Resistance level - AUD0.7240 (high of September 28). Support level - AUD0.7041 (October 8).
The currency pair USD/JPY traded within a narrow range, remaining near the opening level. The pair was weighed down by concerns over a climb in U.S. Treasury yields, the Sino-US trade war and a political turmoil in Europe. Investors also digested the Japanese data on the current account (CA) balance. Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) reported the country’s current account surplus stood at JPY1.838 trillion in August compared to the JPY2.010-trillion surplus in the same month a year ago. Economists had forecast for a surplus of JPY1.897 trillion. Resistance level - Y114.09 (high of October 5). Support level - Y112.42 (low of September 24).
U.S. stock indexes closed mostly lower on Monday, as a technology stocks fell and risk appetite waned after a climb in the U.S. Treasury yields last week.
Asian stock indexes closed mostly lower on Tuesday, following Wall Street's mixed performance overnight. The Chinese equity benchmark, the Shanghai composite, eked out a small gain, correcting after a drastic drop the day before. However, the further growth was limited by reports the IMF projected China’s economic growth to slow from 6.6 percent this year to 6.2 percent next year, a downgrade of 0.2 points from the fund’s prior estimate. Japan’s Nikkei fell on the back of the recent strengthening of the yen against the U.S. dollar, which put pressure on the Japanese large export-oriented companies.
European stock indexes are expected to trade lower in the morning trading session.
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 3.24% (+1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.53% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.54% (0 basis points)
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in November settled at $74.61 (+0.43%). The crude oil prices rose moderately, responding to a weaker U.S. dollar and new evidence that crude exports from Iran are falling in the run-up to the reimposition of the U.S. sanctions. Iran exported only 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in the first week of October, Refinitiv Eikon data revealed. Meanwhile, an industry source who also tracks exports said October shipments were so far below 1 million bpd. Market participants are preparing for the release of the reports on oil inventories in the U.S. Today, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its weekly data on the U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Tomorrow, the focus will be on official report on crude inventories in the U.S. from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Gold traded at $1,190.50 (+0.15%). Gold prices rose slightly, helped by the negative dynamics of the U.S. currency and partial profit-taking after the previous day’s fall in gold prices. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, traded at 95.72. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.
IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)
FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks
MPC Member Dr Ben Broadbent Speaks
Westpac Consumer Confidence
Core Machinery Orders
|remaining time till the new event being published|
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