Pretraga

Market panorama. 7 Јун 2018

PAŽNJA: Slobodan pristup odeljku "Panorama tržišta" dostupan je nakon 6 časova od trenutka objave materijala. Ukoliko želite trenutni pristup, pošaljite zahtev.

I. Market focus:

The news background in the financial markets was rather limited at the beginning of Thursday’s session. In the morning, investors only received the Australian trade data, which turned out to be overall neutral. Markets are waiting for the G7 summit, which will be held in Canada on June 8-9. It is expected that the summit will be rather complicated because of disagreements between the U.S. president and the leaders of other participating countries, due to Trump’s decisions to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and to withdraw the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal, as well as the uncertainty over the U.S. involvement in the Paris Agreement on climate change. The fact that the talks will not be easy, have already been confirmed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau; French President Emmanuel Macron has signaled that he will not sign a joint G7 statement until progress is made on the key issues mentioned above. Since Trump's position is unlikely to change, it is expected that this summit may end without a traditional joint statement of the G7 leaders.

Thursday’s session will be busy with data releases and events, most of which, however, is not of high importance. The most anticipated event of the day is the publication of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) financial stability report (14:30 GMT) and the subsequent press conference of its governor Stephen Poloz (15:15 GMT).


II. The market highlights are:

  • Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday that the value of building permits issued by the Canadian municipalities fell 4.6 percent m-o-m in April, following a revised 1.3 percent m-o-m gain in March (originally a 3.1 percent m-o-m surge). That was the biggest decline since November 2017. Economists had forecast a 2 percent advance in April from the previous month. According to the report, the value of non-residential building permits dropped by 5.2 percent m-o-m due to declines in industrial (-22.6 percent m-o-m) and institutional (-4.6 percent m-o-m) components, which were somewhat offset by a gain in commercial component (+1.7 percent m-o-m). Meanwhile, residential permits fell by 4.3 percent m-o-m on lower construction intentions for both single-family (-3.3 percent m-o-m) and multi-family (-5.2 percent m-o-m) dwellings. In y-o-y terms, building permits increased 6.5 percent in April.

  • Statistics Canada announced on Wednesday that Canada’s merchandise trade deficit stood at CAD1.90 billion in April, narrowing from a revised CAD3.93 billion gap in March (originally a CAD4.14-billion deficit). Economists had expected a deficit of CAD3.40 billion. According to the report, the country’s exports rose 1.6 percent m-o-m to CAD48.56 billion in April, as higher exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products (+9.1 percent m-o-m), consumer goods (+5.4 percent m-o-m) and energy products (+2.3 percent m-o-m) were partially offset by lower exports of aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (-14.2 percent m-o-m). Meanwhile, imports decreased 2.5 percent m-o-m to a record CAD50.47 billion in April, as lower imports of motor vehicles and parts (-5.8 percent m-o-m) and consumer goods (-4.9 percent m-o-m) were partially offset by higher imports of energy products (+8.5 percent m-o-m).

  • The Department of Commerce said on Wednesday the U.S. the goods and services trade deficit narrowed by 2.1 percent m-o-m (or $1.01 billion) to $46.20 billion in April from a revised $47.21 billion in March (originally a gap of $48.96 billion). That was the lowest trade deficit since September 2017. Economists had expected a deficit of $49 billion. According to the report, the April decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a drop in the goods deficit of 1.5 percent m-o-m (or $1.02 billion) to $68.27 billion and a decline in the services surplus of less than 0.1 percent m-o-m (or $0.12 billion) to $22.07 billion. April exports were $211.25 billion, up 0.3 percent m-o-m, while April imports stood at $257.44 billion, down 0.2 percent m-o-m. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit surged 11.5 percent y-o-y (or $20.79 billion). Exports rose 8.1 percent y-o-y (or $61.99 billion), while imports boosted 8.7 percent y-o-y (or $82.78 billion).

  • The final data from the U.S. Labour Department showed on Wednesday that labour productivity in the United States rose 0.4 percent q-o-q in the first quarter, as output grew 2.7 percent q-o-q and hours worked increased 2.3 percent q-o-q (seasonally adjusted). That was below a preliminary estimate of a 0.7 percent q-o-q advance and missed the economists’ forecast for a 0.6 percent q-o-q gain after an unrevised 0.3 percent q-o-q increase in the fourth quarter of 2017. From the first quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, the labor productivity rose 1.3 percent in the first quarter, reflecting a 3.6-percent surge in output and a 2.3-percent gain in hours worked. Meanwhile, unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector in the first quarter rose 2.9 percent q-o-q compared to a preliminary estimate of a 2.7 percent q-o-q gain and a revised 2.5 percent q-o-q increase in the prior quarter (initially a 2.1 percent q-o-q rise). Economists had forecast a 2.8 percent surge in first-quarter unit labor costs. Unit labor costs quarterly growth reflected primarily to a 1.8-percent increase in hourly compensation. Over the last four quarters, unit labor costs rose 1.3 percent.

  • The Ivey Business School Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), measuring Canada’s economic activity, dropped to 62.5 in May from an unrevised 71.5 in April, which was the highest reading since March 2011. Economists had expected the gauge to hit 69.7. A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease. Within sub-indexes, the prices index fell to 64.4 last month (from 67.8 in April), while employment measure rose to 61.2 (from 57.0 in April), inventories indicator increased to 55.0 (from 52.4 in April) and deliveries gauge edged up to 48.7 (from 48.3 in March).

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories surged by 2.072 million barrels to 436.6 million barrels in the week ended June 1. Economists had forecast a decrease of 1.824 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks rose by 4.6 million barrels to 239 million barrels, while analysts had expected an increase of 400,000 barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 2.2 million barrels to 116.8 million barrels last week, while analysts had forecast a build of 900,000 barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. increased to 10.800 million barrels per day from 10.769 million barrels per day in the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged more than 8.3 million barrels per day last week, up by 715,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

  • The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced on Thursday that Australia’s trade surplus in seasonally adjusted terms decreased to AUD0.977 billion in April from an upwardly revised AUD1.731 billion surplus in March (initially a surplus of AUD1.527 billion).  That was the smallest trade surplus since a deficit in December of 2017. Economists had expected a surplus of AUD0.980 billion. According to the report, the exports fell 2.2 m-o-m in April, after gaining 1.7 percent m-o-m in March. Meanwhile, imports were flat m-o-m in April, following a 0.7 percent m-o-m uptick in the prior month.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD rose slightly, refreshing a more than two-week high, helped by the broad weakening of the U.S. dollar. However, investors were cautious ahead of the release of final estimate on the Eurozone’s GDP for the first quarter. The preliminary data revealed the Eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.4 percent q-o-q in the first three months of 2018, indicating a slowdown compared to growth of 0.7 percent q-o-q in the fourth quarter of 2017. Personal consumption probably slowed in the first quarter, as the growth in real retail sales has been sluggish so far this year. Low CPI inflation has become an obstacle for the ECB on the way to normalizing the policy, but inflation begins to show signs of an upward momentum (the consumer prices rose by 1.9 percent y-o-y in May). The release of the GDP report should be welcomed by the ECB, especially in the light of recent political tensions in Italy and Spain. But it is still too early to make any judgments about the long-term consequences of any political uncertainty. Economic growth in the Eurozone remains strong, and inflation should continue to accelerate, giving the ECB time for slow and sustained elimination of stimulus. According to economists’ forecasts, the Eurozone’s GDP in the first quarter grew by 0.4 percent q-o-q and by 2.5 percent y-o-y. Resistance level - $1.1829 (high of May 22). Support level - $1.1618 (low of June 1).

The currency pair GBP/USD traded slightly higher, near yesterday's peak, due to the lack of new drivers. With an almost empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, traders will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. The pair’s performance could also be influenced by the comments of the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee member David Ramsden. Resistance level - $1.3492 (high of May 22). Support level - $1.3295 (low of June 4).

The currency pair AUD/USD fell sharply early in the session on the back of partial profit-taking, but then recovered some of those losses, supported by good trade data from Australia and the weakening of the U.S. dollar. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced that Australia’s trade surplus in seasonally adjusted terms decreased to AUD0.977 billion in April from an upwardly revised AUD1.731 billion surplus in March (initially a surplus of AUD1.527 billion). That was the smallest trade surplus since a deficit in December of 2017. Economists had expected a surplus of AUD0.980 billion. According to the report, the exports fell 2.2 m-o-m in April, after gaining 1.7 percent m-o-m in March. Meanwhile, imports were flat m-o-m in April, following a 0.7 percent m-o-m uptick in the prior month. Resistance level - AUD0.7700 (psychological level). Support level - AUD0.7595 (low of June 5).

The currency pair USD/JPY fell moderately, returning to the low of yesterday's session, on the back of partial profit-taking and the broad weakening of the U.S. dollar. Investors also adjust their positions ahead of the release of final data on Japan's GDP for the first quarter of 2018. According to economists’ forecasts, Japan's economy shrank less than initially projected in the first quarter, reinforcing the views that it will quickly regain strength in the coming months. The world's third-largest economy is now expected to show a drop of 0.4 percent y-o-y for the first quarter, hurt by weak domestic demand and slowing exports, compared to a preliminary estimate of -0.6 percent y-o-y. On a quarterly basis, GDP is forecast to show a decline of 0.1 percent in final estimate, slightly less than the 0.2 percent decline indicated in the preliminary data. Resistance level - Y111.39 (high of May 21). Support level - Y108.11 (low of May 29).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,772.35

+0.86%

Dow

25,146.39

+1.40%

NASDAQ

7,689.24

+0.68%

Nikkei

22,823.26

+0.87%

Hang Seng

31,451.45

+0.62%

Shanghai

3,108.98

-0.20%

S&P/ASX

6,057.30

+0.53%


U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday, with financials and materials stocks leading the way up, as investors watched strong economic data and trade concerns eased. The Department of Commerce announced the U.S. the goods and services trade deficit narrowed by 2.1 percent m-o-m (or $1.01 billion) to $46.20 billion in April from a revised $47.21 billion in March (originally a gap of $48.96 billion). That was the lowest trade deficit since September 2017. Economists had expected a deficit of $49 billion. According to the report, April exports were $211.25 billion, up 0.3 percent m-o-m, while April imports stood at $257.44 billion, down 0.2 percent m-o-m.

Asian stock indexes closed mostly higher on Thursday, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street, amid confidence the global economic growth remains intact. Investors are now looking ahead to the G7 summit this week for further trade developments. Japan’s Nikkei rose solidly, despite the yen’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar, which is seen as an unfavorable factor for the Japanese large export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.97% (0 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.47% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.38% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in July settled at  $65.17 (+0.67%). The crude oil prices rose, as the weakening of the U.S. dollar offset the impact of yesterday's report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which revealed the U.S. crude inventories surged by 2.072 million barrels to  436.6 million barrels in the week ended June 1. Economists had forecast a decrease of 1.824 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks rose by 4.6 million barrels to 239 million barrels, while analysts had expected an increase of 400,000 barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 2.2 million barrels to 116.8 million barrels last week, while analysts had forecast a build of 900,000 barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. increased to 10.800 million barrels per day from 10.769 million barrels per day in the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged more than 8.3 million barrels per day last week, up by 715,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

Gold traded at $1,296.80 (+0.04%). Gold prices rose slightly, due to the negative dynamics of the U.S. currency. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.27 percent to $93.41. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar usually makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


06:45

France

Trade Balance

07:00

Switzerland

Foreign Currency Reserves

07:30

United Kingdom

Halifax house price index

09:00

Eurozone

GDP (Finally)

12:30

U.S.

Continuing Jobless Claims

12:30

U.S.

Initial Jobless Claims

14:30

Canada

Bank of Canada publishes financial system review

15:00

United Kingdom

MPC Member Ramsden Speaks

15:15

Canada

BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks

19:00

U.S.

Consumer Credit

23:50

Japan

Current Account

23:50

Japan

GDP (Finally)


Fokus tržišta

  • RBA minutes: Recent modest fall in AUD helpful for domestic economy
  • US to impose extra tariffs on China from September 24 , around US200bn
  • Foreign investment in Canadian securities reached $12.7 billion in July
  • Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State
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