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Market panorama. 6 Јул 2018

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I. Market focus:

Market participants’ attention is focused on the U.S labor market data, set to be released at 12:30 GMT. We have the following picture ahead of their release:

- The U.S. economy is expected to add 195,000 jobs in June versus 223,000 jobs added in May (May’s reading will be revised twice: today and the next month);

- The average value of jobs added is 186,000 over the past 12 months. Over the past six months – 202,000. Over the past three months - 179,000;

Fig. 1 U.S. nonfarm payrolls, month-on-month (Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor (BLS))

- The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8 percent;

- The private sector in the U.S. added 177,000 jobs in June, according to the ADP report on Thursday. May’s figure was revised up to 189,000 jobs from a previous reading of 178,000. Analysts expected the private sector to add 190,000 jobs;

- The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing employment sub-index for the U.S. fell to 56.0 in June from 56.3 in May; the ISM’s services employment sub-index dropped to 53.6 in June from 54.1 in ay for four weeks is 222,000, remaining near 40-year lows;

- The Conference Board reported that 14.9 percent of the respondents experienced difficulties in finding a job in the last reporting month (versus 15.6 percent a month earlier). At the same time, some 42.1 percent of respondents said jobs were plentiful (versus 40.0 percent a month earlier).

Given the data available at the moment, the average forecasts for the payrolls report look rather justified, and somewhat different data should not significantly affect the dynamics of the markets. A greater impact on the markets’ performance can provide data on the change in average earnings. It is expected that their growth rate will remain at 0.3 percent m-o-m. However, it should be borne in mind that the payrolls report is based on an analysis of other reports. There are differences between these reports.


II. The market highlights are:

  • The employment report prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and Moody's Analytics showed on Thursday the U.S. private employers added 177,000 jobs in June. Economists had expected a gain of 190,000. The increase for May was revised up to 189,000 from 178,000. “The labor market continues to march towards full employment,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Healthcare led job growth once again and trade rebounded nicely.” Meanwhile, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, noted, “Business’ number one problem is finding qualified workers. At the current pace of job growth, if sustained, this problem is set to get much worse. These labor shortages will only intensify across all industries and company sizes.”

  • The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but the trend continued to point to tightening labor market conditions. According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 3,000 to 231,000 for the week ended June 30. Economists had expected 225,000 new claims last week. Claims for the prior week were revised upwardly to 227,000 from the initial estimate of 228,000. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims rose 2,250 to 224,500 last week.

  • The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Thursday its non-manufacturing index came in at 59.1 in June, which was 0.5 percentage point higher than an unrevised May figure of 58.6. This pointed to continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. Economists forecast the index to decrease to 58.3 last month. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. 17 of the non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June, the ISM said. According to the report, the ISM’s non-manufacturing business activity measure rose to 63.9 percent, 2.6 percentage points higher than the May reading of 61.3 percent. That reflected growth for the 107th consecutive month, at a faster rate in June. The new orders gauge went up 2.7 percentage points to 63.2 percent last month, while the prices index fell by 3.6 percentage points to 60.7 percent, indicating that prices increased in June for the 28th consecutive month. The employment indicator edged down 0.5 percentage point in June to 53.6 percent, and the supplier deliveries index decreased 3.0 percentage points to 55.5. Commenting on the data, the Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, Anthony Nieves, noted, "The past relationship between the NMI and the overall economy indicates that the NMI for June (59.1 percent) corresponds to a 3.7 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced on Thursday that crude inventories rose by 1.245 million barrels to 417.881 million barrels in the week ended June 29. Economists had forecast a decrease of 3.538 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 1.505 million barrels to 239.691 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 750,000 barrels. Distillate stocks increased by 134,000 barrels to 117.557 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decline of 685,000 barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. was unchanged at 10.900 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.1 million barrels per day last week, up by 699,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Thursday released the minutes of its meeting held on June 12-13, at which the committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to between 1.75 percent to 2.00 percent. The minutes revealed that the FOMC members discussed the prospects of rate policy rates in case if economic growth accelerates so rapidly that bubbles or unsustainable price pressures occur. This may indicate a changу in the outlook for the U.S. economy. “... participants generally judged that, with the economy already very strong and inflation expected to run at 2 percent on a sustained basis over the medium term, it would likely be appropriate to continue gradually raising the target range for the federal funds rate to a setting that was at or somewhat above their estimates of its longer-run level by 2019 or 2020,” the minutes said. The document also revealed a growing concern about how trade policies can deter business investments and weaken economic growth relative to the Central Bank’s forecasts, suggesting a steady growth in investment, demand and production this year and next. The minutes indicated that some companies scaled back or postponed plans for new investments due to uncertainty about future trade policy.

  • The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Thursday that the Japanese household spending fell in May. According to the official data, household spending dropped 3.9 percent y-o-y in May, following an unrevised 1.3 percent y-o-y drop in April. Economists had expected household spending to decrease 1.5 percent y-o-y in May. Individually, spending was down for apparel (-8.0 percent y-o-y), furniture & household utensils (-7.6 percent y-o-y), food (-5.3 percent y-o-y), utilities (-4.9 percent y-o-y), culture & recreation (-4.3 percent y-o-y), and transportation and communication (-1.7 percent y-o-y), but increased for education (+20.3 percent y-o-y), housing (+5.8 percent y-o-y) and medical care (+1.7 percent y-o-y).

III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD consolidated near the opening level, as investors were cautious ahead of the release of key data on the U.S. labor market. In May, the situation on the labor market improved; employers added 223,000 new jobs, exceeding economists’ expectations. Strong hiring over the past few months has also helped to reduce the unemployment rate to 3.8 percent, which corresponds to a minimum cycle of 1991-2001. Average hourly wages rose by 0.3 percent in May, which led to an increase in the annual rate to 2.7 percent. The gains in compensation costs should help resolve some of the structural problems facing the labor force by attracting more workers. For June, economists forecast the number of employed increased by 190,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.8 percent. Resistance level - $1.1720 (high of June 26). Support level - $1.1591 (low of July 2).

The currency pair GBP/USD traded in a narrow range. Yesterday's reports from Bloomberg continue to weigh on the pound. The agency reported that Angela Merkel’s government was “unconvinced by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s latest attempt at a compromise arrangement for customs after Brexit, seeing it as unworkable”, according to a person familiar with the German stance. Today, investors will continue to monitor the Brexit developments, since the UK’s government is set to meet on Friday to discuss views on post-Brexit customs arrangements and trade. In addition, market participants will pay attention to the U.S. jobs report. Strong employment data are likely are likely to strengthen the chances of another increase in interest rates in the U.S., which should support the U.S. dollar. Resistance level - $1.3314 (high of June 22). Support level - $1.3049 (low of June 28).

The currency pair AUD/USD traded slightly higher, as the U.S. dollar weakened. Market participants also continued to digest the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, released yesterday afternoon. Although the minutes confirmed the Central Bank's adherence to a gradual increase in interest rates, it also showed that the uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy had intensified, which could have a negative impact on sentiment and investment. Although the dynamics of the Australian dollar is largely determined by the dynamics of the U.S. currency, the continuing concerns about the Chinese stock market and the recent fall in prices for industrial metals suggest that the Australian currency is likely to continue to fluctuate in the future. Resistance level - AUD0.7443 (high of June 22). Support level - AUD0.7310 (low of July 2).

The currency pair USD/JPY rose slightly, updating yesterday's peak. The yen was weighed down by the data on household spending. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reported on that the Japanese household spending fell in May. According to the official data, household spending dropped 3.9 percent y-o-y in May, following an unrevised 1.3 percent y-o-y drop in April. Economists had expected household spending to decrease 1.5 percent y-o-y in May. Resistance level - Y111.13 (high of July 3). Support level - Y110.27 (low of July 4).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,736.61

+0.86%

Dow

24,356.74

+0.75%

NASDAQ

7,586.43

+1.12

Nikkei

21,788.14

+1.12%

Hang Seng

28,299.17

+0.42%

Shanghai

2,746.48

+0.46%

S&P/ASX

6,272.30

+0.91%


U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher on Thursday, helped by reports that some trade disputes between the U.S. and Europe could be settled, as well as macroeconomic data. The employment report prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and Moody's Analytics showed the U.S. private employers added 177,000 jobs in June. Economists had expected a gain of 190,000. The increase for May was revised up to 189,000 from 178,000. The data from the Labor Department revealed the number of applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but the trend continued to point to tightening labor market conditions. According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 3,000 to 231,000 for the week ended June 30. Economists had expected 225,000 new claims last week. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported its non-manufacturing index came in at 59.1 in June, which was 0.5 percentage point higher than an unrevised May figure of 58.6. This pointed to continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. Economists forecast the index to decrease to 58.3 last month. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Asian stock indexes closed higher on Friday, tracking Wall Street's overnight gains. However, the market sentiment was somewhat impacted by the comments of China's Ministry of Commerce, who said that the U.S. violated the World Trade Organisation’s rules by introducing tariffs on imports from China, and “launched the largest trade war in economic history to date.”

European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.85% (+1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.30% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.26% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in August settled at $73.20 (+0.36%). The crude oil prices rose moderately, correcting after yesterday's decline, which was caused by the release of the weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA announced that crude inventories rose by 1.245 million barrels to 417.881 million barrels in the week ended June 29. Economists had forecast a decrease of 3.538 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 1.505 million barrels to 239.691 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 750,000 barrels. Distillate stocks increased by 134,000 barrels to 117.557 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decline of 685,000 barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. was unchanged at 10.900 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.1 million barrels per day last week, up by 699,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Market participants are now awaiting weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count from Baker Hughes.

Gold traded at $1,256.10 (-0.11%). Gold prices dropped slightly, as investors assessed the impact of the U.S. tariffs on imports from China, which came into effect today. In addition, market participants continued to digest the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, while awaiting the U.S. employment report for June. The strong jobs numbers are likely to strengthen the chances of another increase in interest rates in the U.S. And this may lead to a drop in gold prices, as higher interest rates can cause a rise in bond yields, making non-yielding bullion less attractive to investors, and could strengthen the dollar, making the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


06:45

France

Trade Balance

07:00

Switzerland

Foreign Currency Reserves

07:30

United Kingdom

Halifax house price index

12:30

Canada

Trade balance

12:30

Canada

Employment

12:30

Canada

Unemployment rate

12:30

U.S.

Manufacturing Payrolls

12:30

U.S.

Government Payrolls

12:30

U.S.

Average workweek

12:30

U.S.

Private Nonfarm Payrolls

12:30

U.S.

Average hourly earnings

12:30

U.S.

Labor Force Participation

12:30

U.S.

International Trade

12:30

U.S.

Nonfarm Payrolls

12:30

U.S.

Unemployment Rate

14:00

Canada

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index

17:00

U.S.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count


Fokus tržišta

  • Irish PM Varadkar: Ideally Would Get Brexit Deal By Year End
  • The sentix overall index for Euro Area fell again in November from 11.4 to 8.8 points
  • UK consumer credit increased by £0.8bn in September
  • Spanish unemployment continues at its lowest levels in the last 9 years
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