Pretraga

Market panorama. 6 Јун 2018

PAŽNJA: Slobodan pristup odeljku "Panorama tržišta" dostupan je nakon 6 časova od trenutka objave materijala. Ukoliko želite trenutni pristup, pošaljite zahtev.

I. Market focus:

Wednesday’s session began with the publication of better-than-expected data on Australia's GDP. The Australian dollar rose moderately in response to the published statistics on GDP. The relatively weak reaction of the Australian currency was due to the fact that despite strong data on the growth rate of the country’s economy in the first quarter of 2018, there is still an increased uncertainty about the prospects for a change in consumer spending due to high household debt and tightening of lending standards by the banks, growth of wages and inflation, as well as falling house prices. Therefore, Australia's GDP growth is likely to slow down in the coming quarters of this year, which is not very encouraging for investors.

The focus of market participants at the beginning of Wednesday's session was also on the reports that the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin urged President Donald Trump on Tuesday to exempt Canada from steel and aluminum tariffs. The news came from ABC News, which cited two sources close to the White House. These reports supported the Canadian dollar and, if Trump follows the advice of Mnuchin, the strengthening of the Canadian currency will accelerate.

Another important topic in the markets is speculation about the upcoming ECB meeting, which will be held on June 14. The media reported that the European regulator is going to consider the curtailing of its quantitative-easing program at the meeting. The euro rose in response to these reports yesterday, and the rising trend of the single currency will most likely continue in the near future.

Today, attention should be paid to the data on the trade balances of the U.S. and Canada, which will be released at 12:30 GMT. The data on the U.S. crude oil inventories (14:30 GMT) will also be very important. Among the scheduled speeches, attention should be paid to the comments of the Bank of England’s (BoE) officials Silvana Tenreyro (10:40 GMT) and Ian McCafferty (16:00 GMT).


II. The market highlights are:

  • The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday its non-manufacturing index came in at 58.6 in May, which was 1.8 percentage points lower than an unrevised April figure of 56.8. This pointed to continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. Economists forecast the index to increase to 57.5 last month. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. 14 of the non-manufacturing industries reported growth in May, the ISM said. According to the report, the ISM’s non-manufacturing business activity measure rose to 61.3 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than the April reading of 59.1 percent. That reflected growth for the 106th consecutive month, at a faster rate in April.  The new orders gauge edged up 0.5 percentage point to 60.5 percent last month, while the prices index surged by 2.5 percentage points to 64.3 percent, indicating that prices increased in May for the 27th consecutive month. The employment indicator went up 0.5 percentage point in May to 54.1 percent, and the supplier deliveries index increased 4.0 percentage points to 58.5. Commenting on the data, the Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, Anthony Nieves, noted, "The past relationship between the NMI and the overall economy indicates that the NMI for May (58.6 percent) corresponds to a 3.5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

  • The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) published by the Labor Department on Tuesday showed the U.S. job openings rose to a new all-time high in April (the series began in December 2000). According to the report, employers posted 6.698 million job openings in April, a gain of 65,000 (or +1.0 percent) from the March figure of 6.633 million (revised from 6.550 million in original estimate). The job openings rate was 4.3 percent in April, unchanged from the prior month. The report showed that the number of job openings increased was little changed for total private and for government. Job openings rose in durable goods manufacturing (+33,000) and information (+26,000) but fell in finance and insurance (-84,000). Meanwhile, hiring went up by 92,000 (+1.7 percent) to 5.578 million in April from 5.486 million in March. Hires for total private and for government were little changed. The hiring rate was 3.8 percent in March, up from 3.7 percent in March. The separation rate in April was at 5.408 million (+86,000 or +1.6 percent) or 3.6 percent, compared to 5.322 million or 3.6 percent in March. Within separations, the quits rate was 2.3 percent (flat m-o-m), and the layoffs rate was 1.2 percent (+0.2 pp m-o-m).

  • Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare announced on Wednesday its estimates showed that labor cash earnings rose faster than expected in April. According to report, total cash earnings increased 0.8 percent y-o-y in April, following a revised 2.0 percent y-o-y gain in March (originally a 2.1 percent y-o-y advance). Economists had expected the cash earnings would increase by 0.2 percent y-o-y. According to the report, contractual gross earnings increased 1.2 percent y-o-y in April, while special cash earnings tumbled 9.8 percent y-o-y.

  • The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported on Wednesday that Australia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.0 percent q-o-q (in seasonally adjusted terms) in the first quarter of 2018, beating economists’ expectation for a growth of 0.9 percent q-o-q. That was the highest growth rate since the second quarter of 2017. In the fourth quarter of 2017, the GDP recorded a 0.5 percent q-o-q expansion (revised from originally reported advance of 0.4 percent q-o-q). In y-o-y terms, the GDP grew 3.1 percent. Economists had forecast a 2.8 percent y-o-y rise in the last quarter after a 2.4 percent y-o-y surge in the prior quarter. According to the ABS, growth in exports accounted for half the expansion in GDP, and reflected strength in exports of mining commodities. Meanwhile, household final consumption expenditure increased 0.3 percent q-o-q in seasonally adjusted terms in the first quarter, driven by rises in non-discretionary items. Meanwhile, private investment (+1.2 percent q-o-q) contributed to GDP growth with continued strong investment in machinery and equipment, and was particularly strong in the non-mining sector. At the same time, general government final consumption expenditure increased 1.6 percent q-o-q, while public investment reduced (-2.0 percent q-o-q) but remained at elevated levels.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD traded near the opening level after a sharp increase in the previous session, which was caused by Bloomberg’s report that the ECB policymakers will debate winding down quantitative easing (QE) at the June 14 meeting. It is expected that the regulator’s head Mario Draghi may use his press conference to signal that the announcement of QE exit strategy will come in July. Today, investors will pay attention to the U.S. data on international trade for April. In March, the U.S. trade deficit fell to $49 billion from a nine-year high of $57.7 billion in February. According to economists’ forecasts, trade deficit remained unchanged at $49 billion in April. Resistance level - $1.1829 (high of May 22). Support level - $1.1511 (low of May 29).

The currency pair GBP/USD consolidated near the opening level, as investors took a breather after yesterday's surge in the pair, which was attributable to the broad weakening of the U.S. currency and stronger-than-expected data on activity in the services sector of the UK’s economy. With an empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, traders will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. The pair’s performance could also be influenced by the comments of the Bank of England’s (BoE) officials Silvana Tenreyro and Ian McCafferty. Resistance level - $1.3492 (high of May 22). Support level - $1.3204 (low of May 29).

The currency pair AUD/USD rose significantly, hitting a high of April 23, helped by upbeat data on Australia's GDP for the first quarter and a new wave of the weakening of the U.S. dollar. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that Australia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.0 percent q-o-q (in seasonally adjusted terms) in the first quarter of 2018, beating economists’ expectation for a growth of 0.9 percent q-o-q. That was the highest growth rate since the second quarter of 2017. In the fourth quarter of 2017, the GDP recorded a 0.5 percent q-o-q expansion (revised from originally reported advance of 0.4 percent q-o-q). In y-o-y terms, the GDP grew 3.1 percent. Economists had forecast a 2.8 percent y-o-y rise in the last quarter after a 2.4 percent y-o-y surge in the prior quarter. According to the ABS, growth in exports accounted for half the expansion in GDP, and reflected strength in exports of mining commodities. Resistance level - AUD0.7682 (high of April 23). Support level - AUD0.7513 (low of June 1).

The currency pair USD/JPY traded slightly higher. The yen was under pressure due to a rise in the U.S. Treasury yields and the release of weak data in Japan. Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare announced its estimates showed that labor cash earnings rose faster than expected in April. According to report, total cash earnings increased 0.8 percent y-o-y in April, following a revised 2.0 percent y-o-y gain in March (originally a 2.1 percent y-o-y advance). Economists had expected the cash earnings would increase by 0.2 percent y-o-y. According to the report, contractual gross earnings increased 1.2 percent y-o-y in April, while special cash earnings tumbled 9.8 percent y-o-y. Resistance level - Y111.39 (high of May 21). Support level - Y108.11 (low of May 29).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,748.80

+0.07%

Dow

24,799.98

-0.06%

NASDAQ

7,637.86

+0.41%

Nikkei

22,625.73

+0.38%

Hang Seng

31,274.82

+0.58%

Shanghai

3,113.76

-0.01%

S&P/ASX

6,025.10

+0.50%


U.S. stock indexes closed mixed on Tuesday. The Nasdaq finished at new all-time highs, helped by gains in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors, while the S&P 500 and Dow were flat, weighed down by declines in financial stocks. Focus also was on the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April and the ISM Services Index for May. The JOLTS revealed the U.S. job openings rose to a new all-time high in April (the series began in December 2000). According to the report, employers posted 6.698 million job openings in April, a gain of 65,000 (or +1.0 percent) from the March figure of 6.633 million (revised from 6.550 million in original estimate). The job openings rate was 4.3 percent in April, unchanged from the prior month. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported its non-manufacturing index came in at 58.6 in May, which was 1.8 percentage points lower than an unrevised April figure of 56.8. This pointed to continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. Economists forecast the index to increase to 57.5 last month.

Asian stock indexes closed mostly higher on Wednesday amid growing commodity prices and reports about China's readiness to increase imports from the U.S. if the Trump administration steps back from tariffs. Japan’s Nikkei rose moderately, as the yen weakened against the dollar, providing support to the Japanese large export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade mixed in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.94% (+2 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.37% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.29% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in July settled at $65.83 (+0.47%). The crude oil prices rose moderately, supported by the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which revealed that the U.S. crude supplies dropped by 2 million barrels for the week ended June 1. At the same time, gasoline stockpiles rose by 3.8 million barrels, while inventories of distillates fell 871,000 barrels. Market participants are now awaiting weekly data on U.S. crude inventories from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Gold traded at $1,298.10 (+0.13%). Gold prices rose slightly, due to the negative dynamics of the U.S. currency. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.08 percent to 93.82. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar usually makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


06:30

Eurozone

ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

07:15

Switzerland

Consumer Price Index

10:40

United Kingdom

MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks

12:30

Canada

Building Permits

12:30

Canada

Trade balance

12:30

U.S.

Unit Labor Costs

12:30

U.S.

Nonfarm Productivity

12:30

U.S.

International Trade

14:00

Canada

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index

14:30

U.S.

Crude Oil Inventories

16:00

United Kingdom

MPC Member McCafferty Speaks

22:30

Australia

AiG Performance of Construction Index


Fokus tržišta

  • RBA minutes: Recent modest fall in AUD helpful for domestic economy
  • US to impose extra tariffs on China from September 24 , around US200bn
  • Foreign investment in Canadian securities reached $12.7 billion in July
  • Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State
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