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Market panorama. 4 Октобар 2018

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I. Market focus

At the beginning of Thursday’s session, the U.S. currency continued to rise against other currencies. The dollar was supported by the comments of the Federal Reserve’s Chairman Jerome Powell, after which the expectations for a further tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy strengthened. Moreover, the Powell remarks do not exclude the possibility of an acceleration in the pace of rate hikes, since inflation is almost at the Fed’s 2% goal, the economy is strong, the unemployment is at its lowest level in 20 years and the interest rates are still accommodative, far from neutral. The statements of the Fed’s chairman were abundantly clear and detailed, so many began to talk that there could be five rate increases this year instead of four as previously thought. It should be noted that the chances the Fed will decide to raise its rates at the non-extended meeting are low, but an interest-rate increase of more than 25 basis points at the next extended meeting, which will be held in December, is quite possible. In the near future, market participants are likely to continue to weigh the prospects for the U.S. currency, pricing in the chances of acceleration Fed’s monetary tightening process. Against this backdrop, the U.S. dollar is expected to see support, and its index may refresh the 2018 highs in the near future.

Apart from Jerome Powell’s statements, the focus of the market participants was on the comments of the U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who criticized China, but this time it was not about trade relations between the two countries. Reuters published an excerpt from his speech, which will be delivered to the audience the Hudson Institute think tank later today (15:00 GMT). The criticism of the vice-president of the United States concerned an incident that occurred a few days ago in the South China Sea when a Chinese destroyer came a stone's throw away from a U.S. Navy ship as the American vessel “conducted freedom-of-navigation operations” near disputed islands. Pence said the U.S. will not be intimidated by China and “the United States Navy will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows and our national interests demand.” Mike Pence’s statements escalate tensions between Washington and Beijing beyond trade disputes, hurting market sentiment.

Thursday's session will not be busy with macroeconomic data. The most important events will be the release of the Canadian PMI report (14:00 GMT), but the focus will be on the U.S. labor market data, set to be published tomorrow.


II. The market highlights are:

  • The employment report prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and Moody's Analytics showed on Wednesday the U.S. private employers added 230,000 jobs in September. That was the highest reading in seven months. Economists had expected a gain of 185,000. The increase for August was revised up to 168,000 from 165,000. “The labor market continues to impress,” noted Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Both the goods and services sectors soared. The professional and business services industry and construction served as key engines of growth. They added almost half of all new jobs this month.” Meanwhile, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market continues to power forward. Employment gains are broad-based across industries and company sizes. At the current pace of job creation, unemployment will fall into the low 3%’s by this time next year.”

  • The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Wednesday its non-manufacturing index (NMI) came in at 61.6 in September, which was 3.1 percentage points higher than the August reading of 58.5 percent. This pointed to continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate, which pushed the NMI to an all-time high. Economists forecast the index to decrease to 58.0 last month. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. 17 of the non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September, the ISM said. According to the report, the ISM’s non-manufacturing business activity measure rose to 65.2 percent, 4.5 percentage points higher than the August reading of 60.7 percent. That reflected growth for the 110th consecutive month, at a faster rate in September. The new orders gauge went up 1.2 percentage points to 61.6 percent last month, while the employment indicator surged 5.7 percentage points to 62.4 percent and the prices index increased by 1.4 percentage points to 64.2 percent. Commenting on the data, the Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, Anthony Nieves, noted, "The past relationship between the NMI and the overall economy indicates that the NMI for September (61.6 percent) corresponds to a 4.6-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced on Wednesday that crude inventories rose by 7.975 million barrels in the week ended September 28. That was the biggest gain since March 2017. Economists had forecast an increase of 1.985 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 459,000 barrels last week, while analysts had expected a build of 1.250 million barrels. Distillate stocks dropped by 1.750 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decline of 1.250 million barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. was unchanged at 11.000 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 163,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

  • The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Thursday that Australia’s trade surplus in seasonally adjusted terms rose to AUD1.604 billion in August from a downwardly revised AUD1.548 billion surplus in July (initially a surplus of AUD1.551 billion). Economists had expected a surplus of AUD1.400 billion. According to the report, the exports increased 0.5 m-o-m in August, after dropping 0.9 percent m-o-m in July. Meanwhile, imports went up 0.4 m-o-m in August, following a 0.7 percent m-o-m gain in the prior month.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD fell slightly, continuing the previous day’s decline, and refreshing its six-week low. The pair was pressured by the broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar, triggered by a significant increase in the U.S. Treasury yields and hawkish statements of the Federal Reserve’s Chairman Powell, which strengthened expectations for further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. Today, the pair performance could be impacted by the U.S. data on initial jobless claims (an increase of 213,000 is expected). Meanwhile, the focus is gradually shifting to the key data on the U.S. labor market, set to be released tomorrow. It is expected that the U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 185,000 in September, following a 201,000 gain in the prior month, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent in August. Resistance level - $1.1651 (high of September 28). Support level - $1.1393 (low of August 20).

The currency pair GBP/USD traded lower, near the low of the 3-1/2-week low, as the U.S. currency demonstrated the broad strengthening in response to the hawkish statements of the Fed’s Chairman Powell, which raised prospects the U.S. regulator would stick to its tighter monetary policy. With an empty economic calendar ahead, traders will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets, as well as will follow the latest news on Brexit talks. Resistance level - $1.3115 (high of October 1). Support level - $1.2896 (low of September 10).

The currency pair AUD/USD fell moderately, approaching its lowest level since mid-February 2016, hurt by a rally in the U.S. currency. However, the pair received some support from the Australian statistics. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that Australia’s trade surplus in seasonally adjusted terms rose to AUD1.604 billion in August from a downwardly revised AUD1.548 billion surplus in July (initially a surplus of AUD1.551 billion). Economists had expected a surplus of AUD1.400 billion. According to the report, the exports increased 0.5 m-o-m in August, after dropping 0.9 percent m-o-m in July. Meanwhile, imports went up 0.4 m-o-m in August, following a 0.7 percent m-o-m gain in the prior month. Resistance level - AUD0.7240 (high of September 28). Support level - AUD0.7000 (psychological level).

The currency pair USD/JPY traded slightly lower, due to a partial profit-taking by investors after a solid increase in the pair since early September. Investors were also adjusting their positions ahead of the release of the Japanese data on household spending (at 23:30 GMT). According to economists’ forecasts, household spending decreased by 0.1 percent in August, following a gain of 0.1 percent in July. Resistance level - Y114.73 (high of November 6, 2017). Support level - Y113.31 (low of September 28).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,925.51

+0.07%

Dow

26,828.39

+0.20%

NASDAQ

8,025.09

+0.32%

Nikkei

23,975.62

-0.56%

Hang Seng

26,623.87

-1.73%

Shanghai

-

-

S&P/ASX

6,176.30

+0.49%


U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday, supported by gains in financial stocks and upbeat economic data.  The employment report prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and Moody's Analytics showed the U.S. private employers added 230,000 jobs in September. That was the highest reading in seven months. Economists had expected a gain of 185,000. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Wednesday its non-manufacturing index (NMI) came in at 61.6 in September, which was 3.1 percentage points higher than the August reading of 58.5 percent. This pointed to continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate, which pushed the NMI to an all-time high. Economists forecast the index to decrease to 58.0 last month.

Asian stock indexes closed mostly lower on Thursday, amid rising concerns over global growth due to a difference in economic performance between the U.S. and the rest of the world. China's markets remain closed for the Golden Week holidays.

European stock indexes are expected to trade lower in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 3.22% (+3 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.54% (+6 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.44% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded lower. Crude oil for delivery in November settled at $76.19 (-0.29%). The crude oil prices fell slightly amid partial profit-taking and a broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Investors also continued to digest the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which revealed that crude inventories rose by 7.975 million barrels in the week ended September 28. That was the biggest gain since March 2017. Economists had forecast an increase of 1.985 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 459,000 barrels last week, while analysts had expected a build of 1.250 million barrels. Distillate stocks dropped by 1.750 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decline of 1.250 million barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. was unchanged at 11.000 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 163,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

Gold traded at $1,197.50 (-0.01%). Gold prices consolidated near the opening level, as a strengthening of the U.S. dollar was balanced by an increase in demand for safe-haven assets after the comments of the U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who criticized China for a “reckless harassment” of the U.S. Navy operations in the South China Sea.

IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


12:30

U.S.

Continuing Jobless Claims

12:30

U.S.

Initial Jobless Claims

13:15

U.S.

FOMC Member Quarles Speaks

14:00

Canada

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index

14:00

U.S.

Factory Orders

17:00

Eurozone

ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks

22:30

Australia

AiG Performance of Construction Index

23:30

Japan

Household spending


Fokus tržišta

  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • Swiss Producer and Import Price Index fell in September 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month
  • Fed's Quarles Calls for Predictable, Gradual Policy Normalization
  • Trump Says He Doesn't Want to Fire the Fed Chair. It Isn't Clear If He Could
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