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Market panorama. 2 Јул 2018

PAŽNJA: Slobodan pristup odeljku "Panorama tržišta" dostupan je nakon 6 časova od trenutka objave materijala. Ukoliko želite trenutni pristup, pošaljite zahtev.

I. Market focus:

The first session of the month began with a slight weakening of the euro, which retreated after a solid increase on Friday. The single currency fell in the morning amid the deepening crisis of the coalition in Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel received a new blow. German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, who called for tighter border controls, said he was ready to resign as minister and as head of the Christian Social Union (CSU), a junior partner in Merkel-led coalition government. After a significant growth on Friday, the euro quickly lost its strength, as Seehofer’s resignation suggests even more uncertainty for Merkel’s future. The euro rose on Friday after the EU leaders reached an agreement on migration issues, which was expected to ease the pressure on Merkel.

The focus also remained on proposed U.S. tariffs on imported cars. The U.S. president Donald Trump said that he considered his threat to impose auto tariffs as his biggest weapon to extract concessions from the U.S. trading partners. “The cars are the big one," Trump told Fox News on Sunday, adding "We can talk steel, we talk everything. The big thing is cars." The president spoke about the possibility of imposition of 20 percent tariffs on imported cars in the name of national security. The presidential administration is currently studying this issue. Discussing the course of the talks on the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada, Trump said that "if they're not fine, I'm going to tax their cars coming into America, and that's the big one." He also added that he intended to persuade foreign auto companies to build more in the U.S. and to reduce exports.

Monday’s session will be busy with macroeconomic reports and events, the most important of which will be the June manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland (07:30 GMT), France (07:50 GMT), Germany (07:55 GMT), the Eurozone (08: 00 GMT), the UK (08:30 GMT) and the U.S. (13:45 GMT). In addition, the focus will be on the Eurozone’s unemployment rate for May (09:00 GMT). In the U.S., attention will be also paid to the ISM’s manufacturing index (14:00 GMT) and construction spending (14:00 GMT). The NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion in New Zealand will be the final event of the day.


II. The market highlights are:

  • Statistics Canada announced on Friday that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent m-o-m in April, following an unrevised 0.3 percent m-o-m advance in March. That marked the slowest expansion since January but was in-line with economists’ forecast. In y-o-y terms, the Canadian GDP rose 2.5 percent in April. According to the report, the output of goods-producing industries increased 0.2 percent m-o-m, as gains in the manufacturing (+0.8 percent m-o-m) and utilities (+1.6 percent m-o-m) sectors more than offset drops in construction (-0.5 percent m-o-m) and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (-0.3 percent m-o-m). Meanwhile, services-producing industries were flat m-o-m as a notable decline in retail trade (-1.3 percent m-o-m) was offset by advances in the majority of subsectors.

  • The Commerce Department reported on Friday that consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in May, following a revised 0.5 percent m-o-m gain in April (originally an advance of 0.6 percent m-o-m). That was the smallest increase in personal spending in four months. Economists had forecast the reading to show a 0.4 percent m-o-m growth. Meanwhile, consumer income rose 0.4 percent m-o-m in May, following a revised 0.2 percent m-o-m advance in April (originally an increase of 0.3 percent m-o-m). Economists had expected the personal income to grow by 0.4 percent in May. The May advance in personal income primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries (+0.3 percent m-o-m), personal dividend income (+1.5 percent m-o-m), and nonfarm proprietors’ income (+0.5 percent m-o-m). The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in May after the same increase in the prior month. Economists had projected the index would rise 0.2 percent. In the 12 months through May, the core PCE increased 2.0 percent, hitting the Fed's inflation target for the first time in six years.

  • MNI Indicators’ report showed on Friday that the expansion of business activity in Chicago accelerated this month. The MNI Chicago Business Barometer, also known as Chicago purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 64.1 in June, up from an unrevised 62.7 in May. Economists had forecast the index to fall to 60.0. A reading above 50 indicates improving conditions, while a reading below this level shows worsening of the situation. Of the major sub-components of the Barometer, the new orders index rose from 63.5 to 65.4, its five-month high. Offsetting this was a drop in production index to from 65.0 to 64.6. The employment indicator increased from 54.7 to 55.2, although hiring sentiment did dip on the quarter. The prices paid index climbed from 71.5 to 76.3, the highest since May 2011.

  • The final reading for the June Reuters/Michigan index of consumer sentiment came in at 98.2 compared to a preliminary reading of 99.3 and the May final reading of 98.0. Economists had forecast the index to be downwardly revised to 99.1. According to the report, the index of the current economic conditions rose to 116.5 from May's final reading of 111.8. Meanwhile, the index of consumer expectations decreased to 86.3 from May’s final reading of 89.1. A retreat in consumer sentiment in late June was largely due to concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on the domestic economy, the report noted.

  • The weekly report from Baker Hughes, which was released on Friday, showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by four to 858 during the week ended June 29. That was a second weekly decline in a row. In the prior week, the oil-rig count dropped by one. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, went down by five to 1,047, as the gas rig count decreased by one to 187 last week, and the miscellaneous rig count remained at 2. The U.S. rig count is up 107 rigs from this time last year when it stood at 940.

  • The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Saturday the Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), which mainly tracks large state-owned companies, came in at 51.5 in June, down from 51.9 in the prior month. Economists had expected a number to slip to 51.6. A reading above the 50-level indicates expansion, while one below 50 suggests contraction. The deceleration in manufacturing activity was mainly attributable to slower growth in output (to 53.6 in June from 54.1 in May) and new orders (to 53.2 from 53.8). Meanwhile, China's official non-manufacturing PMI, also released on Saturday, rose to 55.0 in June from 54.9 in May, indicating the fastest expansion in services activity since January. Economists had expected the reading to drop to 54.7.

  • The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) business sentiment survey, known as the Tankan, revealed Sunday the big Japanese manufacturers' sentiment deteriorated slightly over the second quarter of 2018. According to the survey, the headline index for large manufacturers' sentiment fell to plus 21 in this quarter from the previous quarter's reading of plus 24 and was below economists’ forecast for plus 22. That was the lowest reading since the June quarter of 2017. Meanwhile, sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector improved to plus 24 in the June quarter from plus 23 in the prior quarter, while economists had forecast the indicator to stay at plus 23. The survey also showed that the big manufacturers forecast business conditions to be unchanged over the next three months (the Q3 outlook index among large manufacturers came in at plus 21). At the same time, the big non-manufacturers expect a deterioration in business conditions in Q3 (to plus 20, as measured by the headline index for big non-manufacturers’ sentiment).

  • Final data released by IHS Markit showed on Monday that activity growth in Japan’s manufacturing sector continued to improve during June. The Nikkei Japan Manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 53.0 last month, compared to a preliminary reading of 53.1 and a final reading of 52.8 in May. Economists had expected the reading to hit 53.0. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. According to the report, production expanded at an accelerated rate in June, while new orders increased, albeit to the weakest extent in ten months. Employment rose at a faster pace, although the rate of job creation was still the second-slowest in 2018 so far. On the price front, selling charges were raised to the greatest extent in five months amid sharper input price inflation.

  • Markit/Caixin’s survey revealed on Monday that activity in China’s manufacturing sector eased slightly last month. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 51.0 in June, down from 51.1 in May, continuing to point to a further marginal improvement in operating conditions. The 50 mark divides contraction and expansion. Economists’ had predicted the reading to stay at 51.1. Among components, manufacturing production recorded a further increase, with the rate of growth edging up to a four-month high. Meanwhile, the new order index fell marginally, and the employment index dropped for the second consecutive month, indicating worsening layoffs. On the price front, inflationary pressures picked up, with input costs and output charges rising at the fastest rates in five and 11 months respectively.

III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD fell moderately, reacting to news that Germany’s Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, who also heads the Christian Social Union (CSU), was ready to resign from Angela Merkel’s cabinet due to disagreements over migration policy. Experts note that the resignation of Seehofer suggests even more uncertainty for Merkel’s future. If the CSU leaves the coalition, Merkel will lose a majority in the parliament, which could lead to a new election before the end of the year. As for today's session, investors will continue to follow the news from Germany, as well as pay attention to the Eurozone’s unemployment rate and the U.S. manufacturing index from the ISM. It is expected that the unemployment rate remained at 8.5 percent in May, and the production index fell to 58.0 in June from 58.7 in May. Resistance level - $1.1720 (high of June 26). Support level - $1.1508 (low of June 21).

The currency pair GBP/USD traded slightly lower, due to a new wave of appreciation in the U.S. dollar and Brexit-related news, showing that the UK has no chance to change the EU's position in its favor, and it will have to choose between economic security or sovereignty. Investors are also awaiting the release of the manufacturing PMI for June. According to economists’ forecasts, the PMI fell to 54.0 last month from 54.4 in May. Later this week, market participants will pay attention to the comments of the Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney (due on Thursday), as well as the Brexit developments, as Theresa May's cabinet is set to hold a meeting on this issue on Friday. In addition, the focus continue to be on the trade dispute between the U.S. and China. Resistance level - $1.3314 (high of June 22). Support level - $1.3039 (low of November 3, 2017).

The currency pair AUD/USD traded moderately lower, due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the release of weak data on business activity in the manufacturing sector of Australia and China. The Australian Industry Group (AiG) announced that its manufacturing index dropped to 57.4 in June from 57.5 in May, indicating a slower rate of expansion. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals a contraction in activity. That was the lowest reading since November of 2017. Meanwhile, Markit/Caixin’s survey revealed that activity in China’s manufacturing sector eased slightly last month. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 51.0 in June, down from 51.1 in May, continuing to point to a further marginal improvement in operating conditions. The 50 mark divides contraction and expansion. Economists’ had predicted the reading to stay at 51.1. Resistance level - AUD0.7443 (high of June 22). Support level - AUD0.7323 (low of June 27).

The currency pair USD/JPY rose solidly at the beginning of the session on the back of the broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar but then lost all the earned positions, as the demand for safe-haven assets increased on reports from Germany. The pair’s performance was also impacted by the Japanese data, which revealed that Japan's manufacturing sector continued to expand in June. The Nikkei Japan Manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 53.0 last month, compared to a preliminary reading of 53.1 and a final reading of 52.8 in May. Economists had expected the reading to hit 53.0. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. According to the report, production expanded at an accelerated rate in June, while new orders increased, albeit to the weakest extent in ten months. Employment rose at a faster pace, although the rate of job creation was still the second-slowest in 2018 so far. On the price front, selling charges were raised to the greatest extent in five months amid sharper input price inflation. Resistance level - Y111.18 (high of May 22). Support level - Y109.36 (low of June 25-26).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,718.37

+0.08%

Dow

24,271.41

+0.23%

NASDAQ

7,510.30

+0.09%

Nikkei

21,811.93

-2.21%

Hang Seng

28,955.11

+1.61%

Shanghai

2,775.77

-2.52%

S&P/ASX

6,177.80

-0.27%


U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher on Friday, helped by solid gains in NIKE (NKE) shares and energy and financial stocks. Investors also digested the U.S. data on personal income/spending for May and the final reading of Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index for June. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in May, following a revised 0.5 percent m-o-m gain in April (originally an advance of 0.6 percent m-o-m). That was the smallest increase in personal spending in four months. Economists had forecast the reading to show a 0.4 percent m-o-m growth. Meanwhile, consumer income rose 0.4 percent m-o-m in May, following a revised 0.2 percent m-o-m advance in April (originally an increase of 0.3 percent m-o-m). Economists had expected the personal income to grow by 0.4 percent in May. The final reading for the June Reuters/Michigan index of consumer sentiment came in at 98.2 compared to a preliminary reading of 99.3 and the May final reading of 98.0. Economists had forecast the index to be downwardly revised to 99.1. According to the report, a retreat in consumer sentiment in late June was largely due to concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on the domestic economy.

Asian stock indexes closed mostly lower on Monday, on the back of weak data from China and the lingering fears of a global trade war. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Saturday the Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), which mainly tracks large state-owned companies, came in at 51.5 in June, down from 51.9 in the prior month. Economists had expected a number to slip to 51.6. A reading above the 50-level indicates expansion, while one below 50 suggests contraction. The deceleration in manufacturing activity was mainly attributable to slower growth in output (to 53.6 in June from 54.1 in May) and new orders (to 53.2 from 53.8). Japan’s Nikkei fell to its the lowest level since mid-April, as the yen firmed against the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on the Japanese large export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade mixed in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.84% (-2 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.30% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.28% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded lower. Crude oil for delivery in August settled at $73.47 (-0.92%). The crude oil prices fell on reports that Saudi Arabia King Salman had agreed to increase oil production in response to the request of the U.S. president Donald Trump. Investors also digested the statement by Iran’s First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri that Tehran would allow the private sector to export crude oil to counter the U.S. sanctions. Elsewhere, the focus remained on the Friday’s data from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by four to 858 during the week ended June 29. That was a second weekly decline in a row. In the prior week, the oil-rig count dropped by one. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, went down by five to 1,047, as the gas rig count decreased by one to 187 last week, and the miscellaneous rig count remained at 2. The U.S. rig count is up 107 rigs from this time last year when it stood at 940.

Gold traded at $1,248.10 (-0.34%). Gold prices dropped moderately, as the U.S. currency resumed growth. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.12 percent to 94.75. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)

07:15

Switzerland

Retail Sales

07:30

Switzerland

Manufacturing PMI

07:50

France

Manufacturing PMI

07:55

Germany

Manufacturing PMI

08:00

Eurozone

Manufacturing PMI

08:30

United Kingdom

Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing

09:00

Eurozone

Unemployment Rate

13:45

U.S.

Manufacturing PMI

14:00

U.S.

Construction Spending

14:00

U.S.

ISM Manufacturing

22:00

New Zealand

NZIER Business Confidence


Fokus tržišta

  • RBA minutes: Recent modest fall in AUD helpful for domestic economy
  • US to impose extra tariffs on China from September 24 , around US200bn
  • Foreign investment in Canadian securities reached $12.7 billion in July
  • Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State
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