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Market panorama. 1 Новембар 2018

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I. Market focus

At the beginning of Thursday’s session, the focus of market participants was on reports that British Prime Minister Theresa May had struck a deal with the European Union (EU) that would give UK financial services companies continued access to European markets after Brexit. The Times newspaper reported this, citing unidentified sources in the British government. According to the agreement, the EU will guarantee the UK companies access to European markets as long as British financial regulation remained broadly aligned with the EU's. The paper also said that an initial deal on future partnership on services, as well as the exchange of data,  had also been agreed. At the same time, the two main aspects such as the Irish border question and British access to the single market for goods still remain unresolved, but the progress achieved allows hoping that a compromise will soon be reached on these issues.

The reports of the financial services deal between London and Brussels provoked a rise in the pound, and also increased optimism in the markets, positively influencing the dynamics of stock indices in Asia, as well as the commodity currencies (the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars).

Today, the main expected event will be the completion of the Bank of England’s (BoE) meeting (12:00 GMT). The UK’s regulator is not expected to make any changes to the parameters of its monetary policy at this meeting. It is also unlikely that the tone of the accompanying statement and comments of Mark Carney will change significantly, as, despite reports of progress in negotiations with the EU, the uncertainty on this issue is still quite high.

In addition, attention should be paid to the ISM index for the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy, which will be released at 14:00 GMT.

The stock market participants continue to assess the quarterly reports of companies, as the third-quarter earnings season rolls. Today, the focus will be on the results from Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS-A), DowDuPont Inc. (DWDP) and Banco Santander S.A. (SAN), set to be published before the market opens.


II. The market highlights are:

The employment report prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and Moody's Analytics showed on Wednesday the U.S. private employers added 227,000 jobs in October. That was the highest reading in eight months. Economists had expected a gain of 189,000. The increase for September was revised down to 218,000 from 230,000. “Despite a significant shortage in skilled talent, the labor market continues to grow,” noted Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.”We saw significant gains across all industries with trade and leisure and hospitality leading the way. We continue to see larger employers benefit in this environment as they are more apt to provide the competitive wages and strong benefits employees desire.” Meanwhile, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market bounced back strongly last month despite being hit by back-to-back hurricanes. Testimonial to the robust employment picture is the broad-based gains in jobs across industries. The only blemish is the struggles small businesses are having filling open job positions.”


Statistics Canada announced on Wednesday that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent m-o-m in August, following 0.2 m-o-m gain in July. That was above economists’ forecast for a flat reading. In y-o-y terms, the Canadian GDP rose 2.5 percent in August. According to the report, the output of goods-producing industries was essentially unchanged m-o-m, as gains in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (+0.9 percent m-o-m) and utilities (+0.8 percent m-o-m) sectors were offset by drops in manufacturing (-0.6 percent m-o-m), agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (-0.5 percent m-o-m) and construction (-0.4 percent m-o-m). Meanwhile, services-producing industries edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m led by advances in the finance and insurance sector (+1.0 percent m-o-m), real estate, and rental and leasing (+0.3 percent m-o-m) and professional, scientific and technical services (+0.3 percent m-o-m), which, however, were offset by declines in transportation and warehousing (-0.5 percent m-o-m), retail trade (-0.2 percent m-o-m) and wholesale trade (-0.1 percent m-o-m).


MNI Indicators’ report revealed on Wednesday that the expansion of business activity in Chicago decelerated this month. The MNI Chicago Business Barometer, also known as Chicago purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 58.4 in October, down from an unrevised 60.4 in September. That was the lowest reading in six months. Economists had forecast the index to fall to 60.0. A reading above 50 indicates improving conditions, while a reading below this level shows worsening of the situation. Of the major sub-components of the Barometer, the new orders index declined for the sixth time this year, hitting its lowest level since January of 2017, while the order backlogs index dropped to the lowest level since April. Partially offsetting these declines were increases in output, delivery times and employment. On the inflation front, the prices paid index remained locked in a historically elevated range.


The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that crude inventories rose by 3.2 million barrels to 426.0 million barrels in the week ended October 26. Economists had forecast an increase of 4.1 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks dropped by 3.2 million barrels to 226.2 million barrels, while analysts had expected a fall of 1.7 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 4.1 million barrels to 126.3 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 1.9 million barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. rose by 300,000 barrels a day to 11.200 million barrels a day, hitting a new record high. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 334,000 barrels per day from the previous week.


The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced on Thursday that Australia’s trade surplus in seasonally adjusted terms rose to AUD3.017 billion in September from an upwardly revised AUD2.342 billion surplus in August (initially a surplus of AUD1.604 billion). That was the largest trade surplus since February 2017. Economists had expected a surplus of AUD1.700 billion. According to the report, the exports increased 0.8 m-o-m in September, after jumping 1.3 percent m-o-m in August. Meanwhile, imports dropped 1.1 percent m-o-m in September, following a 0.1 percent m-o-m gain in the prior month.


Final data released by IHS Markit revealed on Thursday that activity growth in Japan’s manufacturing sector accelerated in October. The Nikkei Japan Manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 52.9 last month, compared to a preliminary reading of 53.1 and a final reading of 52.5 in September. That marked the strongest expansion since June. Economists had expected the reading to remain unrevised at 53.1. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. According to the report, the latest improvement in business conditions was underpinned by stronger rates of increase in output, new orders and employment. Meanwhile, prices data pointed to a sharper rate of input cost inflation, prompting firms to raise output prices to the greatest extent for ten years.


Markit/Caixin’s survey showed on Thursday that operating conditions in China’s manufacturing sector were little-changed from the previous month in October. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 50.1 in October, up from 50.0 in September, signaling that operating conditions were broadly unchanged at the start of the fourth quarter, after stagnating in the previous month. The 50 mark divides contraction and expansion. Economists’ had predicted the reading to drop to 49.9. Among components, manufacturing production was little changed in October, while employment fell again, extending the current sequence of job shedding to five years. In the meantime, total new orders expanded slightly in October and buying activity among Chinese manufacturers renewed growth. Prices data signaled a further squeeze on operating margins as input costs continued to rise at a faster rate than output charges.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD rose moderately, approaching the previous day’s high, due to a partial profit-taking after reaching a low of August 15, as well as the widespread weakening of the U.S. currency. Today, investors will pay attention to the publication of the U.S. labor market data and a report on business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector from ISM. It is forecast that ISM manufacturing index fell to 59.0 points in October from 59.8 points in September. Market participants will also be preparing for tomorrow's release of non-farm payrolls and wages data for October. It is expected that employers probably added 190,000 new jobs last month, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 3.7 percent. This would follow a more modest increase of only 134,000 new jobs in September. However, Hurricane Florence was largely to blame for the depressed job growth in September, as about 300,000 workers said they could not work due to bad weather. Overall, there no signs of a cooling labor market. Resistance level - $1.1432 (high of October 25). Support level - $1.1301 (low of October 31).

The currency pair GBP/USD traded noticeably higher, near a week high. The main catalyst for the pair's growth was the news that British Prime Minister Theresa May had struck a deal with the European Union (EU) that would give UK financial services companies continued access to European markets after Brexit. The Times newspaper reported this, citing unidentified sources in the British government. According to the agreement, the EU will guarantee the UK companies access to European markets as long as British financial regulation remained broadly aligned with the EU's. The next driver for the pair may be the outcome of the Bank of England (BoE) meeting.  After raising rates 25 basis points at its August meeting, the BoE is expected to remain on hold at the November meeting. Experts note the UK’s regulator is probably in a mode of balancing, managing inflation amid lingering uncertainty around the Brexit process. Resistance level - $1.2919 (high of October 25). Support level - $1.2696 (low of October 30 ).

The currency pair AUD/USD showed a significant increase, helped by favorable data releases in Australia and China, higher commodity prices and the broad weakening of the U.S.currency. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced that Australia’s trade surplus in seasonally adjusted terms rose to AUD3.017 billion in September from an upwardly revised AUD2.342 billion surplus in August (initially a surplus of AUD1.604 billion). That was the largest trade surplus since February 2017. Economists had expected a surplus of AUD1.700 billion. As for Chinese data, Markit/Caixin’s survey showed that operating conditions in China’s manufacturing sector improved marginally in October. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 50.1 in October, up from 50.0 in September. The 50 mark divides contraction and expansion. Economists’ had predicted the reading to drop to 49.9. Resistance level - AUD0.7159 (high of October 17). Support level - AUD0.7067 (low of October 31).

The currency pair USD/JPY fell slightly, refreshing the previous day’s low, due to partial profit-taking and the broad weakening of the U.S. currency. Investors also digested final data from IHS Markit, which revealed that activity growth in Japan’s manufacturing sector accelerated in October. The Nikkei Japan Manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 52.9 last month, compared to a preliminary reading of 53.1 and a final reading of 52.5 in September. That marked the strongest expansion since June. Economists had expected the reading to remain unrevised at 53.1. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. Resistance level - Y113.37 (high of October 31). Support level - Y111.36 (low of October 26).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,711.74

+1.09%

Dow

25,115.76

+0.97%

NASDAQ

7,305.90

+2.01%

Nikkei

21,687.65

-1.06%

Hang Seng

25,416.00

+1.75%

Shanghai

2,606.24

+0.13%

S&P/ASX

5,840.80

+0.18%


U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher on Wednesday, recording a second straight day of gains, helped by strong corporate earnings and a rebound in the technology sector.  Focus also was on ADP employment report for October, which showed the U.S. private employers added 227,000 jobs last month. That was the highest reading in eight months. Economists had expected a gain of 189,000.

Asian stock indexes closed mostly higher on Thursday, supported by Wall Street’s solid performance overnight and Chinese data. Markit/Caixin’s survey revealed that operating conditions in China’s manufacturing sector improved marginally in October. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 50.1 in October, up from 50.0 in September. The 50 mark divides contraction and expansion. Economists’ had predicted the reading to drop to 49.9. Japan’s Nikkei fell, dragged down by the telecommunications sector due to concerns over pricing pressures. Meanwhile, a firmer yen put pressure on the Japanese export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade lower in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 3.16% (+2 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.39% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.30% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded lower. Crude oil for delivery in December settled at $$65.02 (-0.44%). The crude oil prices fell moderately amid lingering concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth due to the U.S.-China trade conflict. Investors also continued to digest the latest data the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which revealed the U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.2 million barrels to 426.0 million barrels in the week ended October 26. Economists had forecast an increase of 4.1 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks dropped by 3.2 million barrels to 226.2 million barrels, while analysts had expected a fall of 1.7 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 4.1 million barrels to 126.3 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 1.9 million barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. rose by 300,000 barrels a day to 11.200 million barrels a day, hitting a new record high. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 334,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

Gold traded at $1,223.30 (+0.71%). Gold prices fell noticeably on the back of a broad weakening of the U.S. dollar. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.39 percent to 96.75. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.


IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


08:15

Switzerland

Consumer Price Index

08:30

Switzerland

Manufacturing PMI

09:30

United Kingdom

Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing

12:00

United Kingdom

BoE Interest Rate Decision

12:00

United Kingdom

Asset Purchase Facility

12:00

United Kingdom

BOE Inflation Letter

12:30

United Kingdom

BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

12:30

U.S.

Continuing Jobless Claims

12:30

U.S.

Unit Labor Costs

12:30

U.S.

Nonfarm Productivity

12:30

U.S.

Initial Jobless Claims

13:45

U.S.

Manufacturing PMI

14:00

U.S.

Construction Spending

14:00

U.S.

ISM Manufacturing

19:00

U.S.

Total Vehicle Sales



Fokus tržišta

  • Irish PM Varadkar: Ideally Would Get Brexit Deal By Year End
  • The sentix overall index for Euro Area fell again in November from 11.4 to 8.8 points
  • UK consumer credit increased by £0.8bn in September
  • Spanish unemployment continues at its lowest levels in the last 9 years
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