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Market panorama. 1 Октобар 2018

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I. Market focus

The main theme in the financial markets of the world at the beginning of the new week were reports that the U.S. and Canada had reached a deal to replace the current North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This was reported by a senior U.S. administration official. It is expected that officials of both countries will make a joint statement on this issue throughout the day. According to the information available at the moment, the new accord, called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), was reached after Ottawa agreed to improve access to Canada’s dairy market for U.S. farmers, and Washington, in turn, agreed to preserve the NAFTA's dispute-settlement mechanism. It is also known that the new trilateral deal will be signed by late November.

The received reports supported the Canadian dollar, which strengthened significantly against the U.S. dollar by the beginning of the European session on Monday. The upward trend in the Canadian currency is likely to continue in the near future as well. Reports about the NAFTA revamp triggered an increase in investor risk appetite, which supported the stock indices. It is expected that stocks’ strong performance, observed in the morning, will continue throughout the day.

Today's session will be busy with macroeconomic reports and events. The most important data will be the UK statistics on activity in the manufacturing sector from Markit (08:30 GMT) and a similar U.S. report from the ISM (14:00 GMT). In addition, attention should be paid to the U.S. vehicle sales data (19:00 GMT) and the comments of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic (13:00 GMT).


II. The market highlights are:

  • Statistics Canada announced on Friday that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent m-o-m in July, following flat m-o-m performance in June. That was above economists’ forecast for a 0.1 percent m-o-m gain. In y-o-y terms, the Canadian GDP rose 2.4 percent in July. According to the report, the output of goods-producing industries increased 0.3 percent m-o-m, as gains in the manufacturing (+1.2 percent m-o-m) and utilities (+2.1 percent m-o-m) sectors more than offset drops in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (-0.8 percent m-o-m), construction (-0.6 percent m-o-m) and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (-0.3 percent m-o-m). Meanwhile, services-producing industries expanded 0.2 percent m-o-m led by advances in wholesale trade (+1.4percent m-o-m) and transportation and warehousing (+0.9 percent m-o-m).

  • The Commerce Department reported on Friday that consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in August, following an unrevised 0.4 percent m-o-m advance in July. That was the smallest increase in personal spending since February. Economists had forecast the reading to show a 0.3 percent m-o-m growth. Meanwhile, consumer income rose 0.3 percent m-o-m last month, the same pace as in the previous month. Economists had expected the personal income to increase by 0.4 percent in July. The August advance in personal income primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries, government social benefits to persons, and nonfarm proprietors’ income. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was unchanged m-o-m in August after 0.2 percent m-o-m gain in the prior month. Economists had projected the index would increase 0.1 percent. In the 12 months through August, the core PCE increased 2.0 percent, the same as in July and in-line with the Fed's inflation target.

  • MNI Indicators’ report showed on Friday that the expansion of business activity in Chicago decelerated this month. The MNI Chicago Business Barometer, also known as Chicago purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 60.4 in September, down from an unrevised 63.6 in August. That was the lowest reading in five months. Economists had forecast the index to fall to 62.5. A reading above 50 indicates improving conditions, while a reading below this level shows worsening of the situation. Of the major sub-components of the Barometer, the new orders index declined to a five-month low, while the production index dropped to a six-month low, and hiring activity eased again. Partially offsetting these were longer delivery times and a higher count of unfinished order. On the inflation front, the prices paid index slid in September, but MNI Indicators noted tariffs continued to push prices higher along with material shortages.

  • The final reading for the September Reuters/Michigan index of consumer sentiment came in at 100.1 compared to a preliminary reading of 100.8 and the August final reading of 96.2. The index topped 100.0 for only the third time since January 2004. Economists had forecast the index to stay unrevised at 100.8. According to the report, the index of the current economic conditions rose to 115.2 in September from August's final reading of 110.3. Meanwhile, the index of consumer expectations increased to 90.5 from August’s final reading of 87.1. The report noted that a single issue that was cited as having a potential negative impact on the economy was tariffs. Concerns about the negative impact of tariffs were cited by nearly one-third of all consumers in September.

  • The weekly report from Baker Hughes, which was released on Friday, showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil dropped by three to 863 during the week ended September 28. In the prior week, the oil-rig count edged down by one. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, went up by one to 1,054, as the gas rig count increased by three to 189 last week, and the miscellaneous rig count rose by one to 2. The U.S. rig count is up 114 rigs from this time last year when it stood at 940.

  • Final data released by IHS Markit revealed on Monday that activity growth in Japan’s manufacturing sector continued to expand at a relatively robust pace during September. The Nikkei Japan Manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 52.5 last month, compared to a preliminary reading of 52.9 and a final reading of 52.5 in August. Economists had expected the reading to remain unrevised at 52.9. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. According to the report, despite a further increase in new orders, the output growth eased to a 14-month low and the rate of job creation accelerated but was among the weakest seen during the current 25-month stretch of recruitment. On the price front, selling charges were raised to the greatest extent in five months amid sharper input price inflation. Increased raw material prices, particularly for oil and metals, yen weakness as well as higher labour and shipping expenses resulted in sharp cost inflation in September. Output prices were increased as part of efforts to offset greater cost burdens. Although the rate of inflation weakened, it remained close to August’s near-decade high.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD traded slightly lower, due to a new wave of strengthening of the U.S. currency. Market participants were also preparing for the publication of the Eurozone’s data on the labor market and the U.S. statistics on activity in the manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). According to economists’ forecasts, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone stabilized at 8.2 percent in August, while the ISM manufacturing index fell to 60.3 points in September from 61.3 points in August. In addition, the focus will be on the statements by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic and the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren. Resistance level - $1.1651 (high of September 28). Support level - $1.1526 (low of September 10).

The currency pair GBP/USD fell slightly, due to the broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Investors also adjusted their positions ahead of the release of the UK’s statistics on activity in the manufacturing sector from Markit. Economists expect the manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) probably dropped to 52.5 points in September from 52.8 points in August. A reading above the 50-level indicates expansion, while one below 50 suggests contraction. Since the services sector contributed over 60 percent of GDP, this indicator is less important than a similar measure for the services sector. Apart from the data, traders will also focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Resistance level - $1.3217 (high of September 26). Support level - $1.2964 (low of September 11).

The currency pair AUD/USD fell moderately, reaching the Friday session’s low. The pair was weighed down by the strengthening of the U.S. currency, but positive data from Australia limited the decline. The report from the Australian Industry Group (AIG) showed that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 59.0 points in September from 56.7 points in August. The AiG noted that new orders, exports, production, employment, sales, deliveries and stocks all continued to expand last month. The index has been in expansion mode for a record 24 straight months. Resistance level - AUD0.7314 (high of September 26). Support level - AUD0.7141 (low of September 17).

The currency pair USD/JPY rose slightly, on the back of the broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar and mixed statistics from Japan.

The Bank Of Japan’s (BoJ) business sentiment survey, known as the Tankan, revealed the big Japanese manufacturers' sentiment deteriorated slightly over the third quarter of 2018. According to the survey, the headline index for large manufacturers' sentiment fell to plus 19 this quarter from the previous quarter's reading of plus 21 and was below economists’ forecast for plus 22. That was the lowest reading since the June quarter of 2017. Meanwhile, sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector decreased to plus 22 in the September quarter from plus 24 in the prior quarter, matching economists’ forecast. The survey also showed that both big manufacturers and non-manufacturers forecast business conditions to be unchanged over the next three months. Resistance level - Y114.34 (high of November 7, 2017). Support level - Y113.31 (low of September 28).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,913.98

0.00%

Dow

26,458.31

+0.07%

NASDAQ

8,046.35

+0.05%

Nikkei

24,245.76

+0.52%

Hang Seng

-

-

Shanghai

-

-

S&P/ASX

6,172.30

-0.57%


U.S. stock indexes closed little changed on Friday, as gains in utilities were offset by declines in financials. Focus also was on the U.S. data. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in August, following an unrevised 0.4 percent m-o-m advance in July. That was the smallest increase in personal spending since February. Economists had forecast the reading to show a 0.3 percent m-o-m growth. Meanwhile, consumer income rose 0.3 percent m-o-m last month, the same pace as in the previous month. Economists had expected the personal income to increase by 0.4 percent in July. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was unchanged m-o-m in August after 0.2 percent m-o-m gain in the prior month. Economists had projected the index would increase 0.1 percent. In the 12 months through August, the core PCE increased 2.0 percent, the same as in July and in-line with the Fed's inflation target. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan reported the final reading for the September Reuters/Michigan index of consumer sentiment came in at 100.1 compared to a preliminary reading of 100.8 and the August final reading of 96.2. The index topped 100.0 for only the third time since January 2004. Economists had forecast the index to stay unrevised at 100.8.

Asian stock indexes closed mixed on Monday, following a flat performance on Wall Street on Friday.  Markets in Hong Kong and China were closed due to holidays. The Japanese stocks outperformed as the yen weakened against the U.S. dollar, supporting the Japanese export-oriented companies. In addition, investors digested a batch of mixed economic data from Japan.

European stock indexes are expected to trade lower in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 3.07% (+1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.48% (+1 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.44% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in November settled at $73.56 (+0.42%). The crude oil prices rose moderately, amid concerns that U.S. sanctions on Iran, expected in November, could cause oil supply shortages. Market participants olso continued to digest the latest data from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil dropped by three to 863 during the week ended September 28. In the prior week, the oil-rig count edged down by one. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, went up by one to 1,054, as the gas rig count increased by three to 189 last week, and the miscellaneous rig count rose by one to 2. The U.S. rig count is up 114 rigs from this time last year when it stood at 940.

Gold traded at $1,189.10 (-0.13%). Gold prices dropped slightly, weighed down by the broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.10 percent to 95.23. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


07:15

Switzerland

Retail Sales

07:30

Switzerland

Manufacturing PMI

07:50

France

Manufacturing PMI

07:55

Germany

Manufacturing PMI

08:00

Eurozone

Manufacturing PMI

08:00

Eurozone

Eurogroup Meetings

08:30

United Kingdom

Net Lending to Individuals

08:30

United Kingdom

Consumer credit

08:30

United Kingdom

Mortgage Approvals

08:30

United Kingdom

Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing

09:00

Eurozone

Unemployment Rate

13:00

U.S.

FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

13:45

U.S.

Manufacturing PMI

14:00

U.S.

Construction Spending

14:00

U.S.

ISM Manufacturing

16:45

U.S.

FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

19:00

U.S.

Total Vehicle Sales

21:00

New Zealand

NZIER Business Confidence


Fokus tržišta

  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • Swiss Producer and Import Price Index fell in September 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month
  • Fed's Quarles Calls for Predictable, Gradual Policy Normalization
  • Trump Says He Doesn't Want to Fire the Fed Chair. It Isn't Clear If He Could
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