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Market panorama. 1 Јун 2018

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I. Market focus:

Market participants’ attention is focused on the U.S labor market data, set to be released at 12:30 GMT. We have the following picture ahead of their release:

- The U.S. economy is expected to add 189,000 jobs in May versus 164,000 jobs added in April (April’s reading will be revised twice: today and the next month);

- The average value of jobs added is 178,000 over the past 12 months. Over the past six months – 198,000. Over the past three months - 208,000;

Fig. 1 U.S. nonfarm payrolls, month-on-month (Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor (BLS))

- The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9 percent;

- The private sector in the U.S. added 178,000 jobs in May, according to the ADP report on Thursday. April’s figure was revised down to 163,000 jobs from a previous reading of 204,000. Analysts expected the private sector to add 191,000 jobs;

- The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing and services employment sub-indexes will be released after the employment report;

- Job openings increased to 6.55 million in March from 6.08 million in the previous month;

- Average initial jobless claims for four weeks is 222,000, remaining near 40-year lows;

- The Conference Board reported that 15.8 percent of the respondents experienced difficulties in finding a job in the last reporting month (versus 15.5 percent a month earlier). At the same time, some 42.2 percent of respondents said jobs were plentiful (versus 38.2 percent a month earlier).

Given the data available at the moment, the average forecasts for the payrolls report look rather justified, but the non-available ISM’s employment sub-indexes heightened uncertainty about anticipated data. On the one hand, Conference Board’s surveys support expectations of stronger data, while the ADP’s data indicate the opposite. However, it should be borne in mind that the payrolls report is based on an analysis of other reports. There are differences between these reports.


II. The market highlights are:

  • Statistics Canada announced on Thursday that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent m-o-m in March, following an unrevised 0.4 percent m-o-m advance in February. Economists had forecast a 0.2 percent m-o-m gain in March. In the first quarter of 2018, Canada’s economy rose 0.3 percent q-o-q after an unrevised 0.4 percent q-o-q growth in the fourth quarter of 2017. In y-o-y terms, the Canadian GDP rose 1.3 percent in the first quarter, compared to an unrevised 1.7 percent gain in the prior quarter and economists expectation of 1.8 percent y-o-y climb. According to the report, final domestic demand increased 0.5 percent q-o-q. At the same time, growth was moderated by a deceleration in household spending (+0.4 percent q-o-q in Q1 compared to +0.6 percent q-o-q in Q4), lower exports of non-energy products and a decline in housing investment (-1.9 percent q-o-q).

  • The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to a tight labor market conditions. According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased 13,000 to 221,000 for the week ended May 26. Economists had expected 228,000 new claims last week. Claims for the prior week were unrevised at 234,000.  Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims rose 2,250 to 222,250 last week.

  • The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.6 percent m-o-m in April, following a revised 0.5 percent m-o-m gain in March (originally an advance of 0.4 percent m-o-m). That was the biggest increase in personal spending in five months. Economists had forecast the reading to show a 0.4 percent m-o-m growth. Meanwhile, consumer income rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in April, following a revised 0.2 percent m-o-m advance in March. Economists had expected the personal income to grow by 0.3 percent in April. The April gain in personal income primarily reflected gains in wages and salaries (+0.4 percent m-o-m), in personal interest income (+0.4 percent m-o-m), and in government social benefit payments to persons, specifically veteran’s benefits and Medicare. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in April after the same increase in the prior month. Economists had projected the index would rise 0.1 percent. In the 12 months through April, the core PCE rose 1.8 percent, slightly below the Fed's inflation target of 2 percent.

  • The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Thursday its seasonally adjusted pending home sales index (PHSI) fell 1.3 percent m-o-m to 106.4 in April from an upwardly revised 107.8 in March. Economists had expected pending home sales to increase 0.4 percent m-o-m in April. On y-o-y basis, the index fell 2.1 percent. That was the fourth consecutive month of annual declines. According to the report, the pending home sales decreased in the Midwest (-3.2 percent m-o-m as measured by PHSI), the South (-1.0 percent m-o-m) and the West (-0.4 percent m-o-m), but were unchanged in the Northeast. The chief economist for the NAR, Lawrence Yun, noted that the housing market this spring is hindered because of the severe housing shortages in much of the country. “Pending sales slipped in April and continued to stay within the same narrow range with little signs of breaking out,” he said. “Feedback from Realtors, as well as the underlying sales data, reveal that the demand for buying a home is very robust. Listings are typically going under contract in under a month1, and instances of multiple offers are increasingly common and pushing prices higher.”

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Thursday that crude inventories declined by 3.62 million barrels in the week ended May 25. Economists had forecast an increase of 2.21 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks rose by 0.5 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decrease of 1.5 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 0.6 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decline of 1.2 million barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. increased to 10.769 million barrels per day from 10.725 million barrels per day in the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 7.6 million barrels per day last week, down by 528 thousand barrels per day from the previous week.

  • Final data released by IHS Markit revealed on Friday that activity growth in Japan’s manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace during May. The Nikkei Japan Manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 52.8 in last month, compared to a preliminary reading of 52.5 and a final reading of 53.8 in April. Economists had expected the reading to stay unrevised at 52.5. That marked the weakest expansion in manufacturing growth since October 2017. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. According to the report, output, new orders and employment all rose at a slower pace than the previous month. At the same time, the rate of input price inflation remained sharp and accelerated to the joint-fastest in 41 months. Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, noted: “Japan’s manufacturing sector failed to gain traction from April’s upswing, with the headline PMI figure falling for the third time this year to a joint-ninemonth low. Total new orders increased to a softer extent, while the exports index increased for the first time since January. A stronger improvement in foreign demand for Japanese goods will be welcomed; however the pace of expansion in May remains markedly below those seen at the start of the year prior to the JPY appreciation. To the downside, the weaker growth rate in overall new sales suggests some softening in the domestic economy”.

  • Markit/Caixin’s survey showed on Friday that activity in China’s manufacturing sector improved marginally in May. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 51.1 last month, unchanged from April, pointing to only a modest expansion of China’s manufacturing sector. The 50 mark divides contraction and expansion. Economists’ had predicted the reading to edge up to 51.3. Among components, growth in production and new orders picked up slightly from April, while employment continued to decrease amid companies’ efforts to cut costs and raise efficiency. At the same time, price pressures intensified, with both input costs and output charges increasing at solid rates.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD fell slightly, as the U.S. dollar resumed growth ahead of the release of the U.S. employment situation report. Economists expect to see solid data. The nonfarm payrolls are forecast to increase by 189,000 in May after a 164,000 gain in the prior month, and the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 3.9 percent. Meanwhile, the average hourly earnings are forecast to record a 0.2 percent m-o-m rise for May, accelerating from a 0.1 percent in April. Strong labour market statistics could be an argument in favor of a faster increase in the Fed’s interest rates, supporting the U.S. dollar. Resistance level - $1.1829 (high of May 22). Support level - $1.1511 (low of May 29).

The currency pair GBP/USD traded moderately lower, near the low of May 30, weighed down by the broad strengthening of the U.S. currency. Investors are awaiting the UK’s manufacturing PMI for May, as well as the U.S. nonfarm payrolls for May. According to economists’ forecast, the manufacturing PMI fell to 53.6 points in May from 53.9 points in April. Since services sector accounts for more than 60 percent of the UK’s GDP, the impact of this indicator on the dynamics of the pound is usually limited. Overall, the expansion of the indicator is positive for the pound. Resistance level - $1.3420 (high of May 24). Support level - $1.3204 (low of May 29).

The currency pair AUD/USD fell noticeably, updating yesterday's low, pressured by the weaker-than-expected data from China, Australia's main trading partner, as well as the broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Markit/Caixin’s survey revealed that activity in China’s manufacturing sector improved marginally in May. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 51.1 last month, unchanged from April, pointing to only a modest expansion of China’s manufacturing sector. The 50 mark divides contraction and expansion. Economists’ had predicted the reading to edge up to 51.3. Among components, growth in production and new orders picked up slightly from April, while employment continued to decrease amid companies’ efforts to cut costs and raise efficiency. At the same time, price pressures intensified, with both input costs and output charges increasing at solid rates. Resistance level - AUD0.7605 (high of May 22). Support level - AUD0.7475 (low of May 30).

The currency pair USD/JPY traded slightly higher, as positive news from the Korean peninsula sparked interest in risky assets, reducing demand for the yen, considered a safe haven. The authorities of South Korea said that the DPRK delegation suggested during high-level talks that the two Koreas hold a joint celebration of the anniversary of a historic 2000 inter-Korean summit on June 15 in the South. In addition, the yen was influenced by the reports the Bank of Japan (BoJ) cut purchases of debt maturing in the five-to-10 year zone by JPY20 billion to JPY430 billion at Friday’s regular operation. Resistance level - Y109.79 (high of May 28). Support level - Y108.11 (low of May 29).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,705.27

-0.69%

Dow

24,415.84

-1.02%

NASDAQ

7,442.12

-0.27%

Nikkei

22,171.35

-0.14%

Hang Seng

30,511.85

+0.14%

Shanghai

3,075.46

-0.65%

S&P/ASX

5,990.40

-0.36%


U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Thursday, after President Trump's administration announced about the imposition of tariffs on metal imports from the European Union, Mexico and Canada, sparking fears of a trade war between the U.S. and its key trading partners. Investors also received a batch of economic data. The data from the Labor Department revealed the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to a tight labor market conditions. According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased 13,000 to 221,000 for the week ended May 26. Economists had expected 228,000 new claims last week. Claims for the prior week were unrevised at 234,000.  Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.6 percent m-o-m in April, following a revised 0.5 percent m-o-m gain in March (originally an advance of 0.4 percent m-o-m). That was the biggest increase in personal spending in five months. Economists had forecast the reading to show a 0.4 percent m-o-m growth. Meanwhile, consumer income rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in April, following a revised 0.2 percent m-o-m advance in March. Economists had expected the personal income to grow by 0.3 percent in April. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced its seasonally adjusted pending home sales index (PHSI) fell 1.3 percent m-o-m to 106.4 in April from an upwardly revised 107.8 in March. Economists had expected pending home sales to increase 0.4 percent m-o-m in April. On y-o-y basis, the index fell 2.1 percent. That was the fourth consecutive month of annual declines.

Asian stock indexes closed mostly lower on Friday, as the risk of a global trade war escalated after the U.S. slapped tariffs on metal imports from the European Union, Mexico and Canada.

European stock indexes are expected to trade mixed in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.86% (0 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.34% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.23% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded lower. Crude oil for delivery in July settled at $66.94 (-0.15%). The crude oil prices fell slightly, as the U.S. dollar firmed. Market participants also digested the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which revealed that the U.S. crude inventories declined by 3.62 million barrels in the week ended May 25. Economists had forecast an increase of 2.21 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline stocks rose by 0.5 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decrease of 1.5 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 0.6 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decline of 1.2 million barrels. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. increased to 10.769 million barrels per day from 10.725 million barrels per day in the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 7.6 million barrels per day last week, down by 528 thousand barrels per day from the previous week.

Gold traded at $1,298.20 (-0.05%). Gold prices fell slightly, responding to the strengthening of the U.S. currency and news from the Korean Peninsula, which reduced the demand for safe-haven assets. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.18 percent to 94.15. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar usually makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


07:30

Switzerland

Manufacturing PMI

07:50

France

Manufacturing PMI

07:55

Germany

Manufacturing PMI

08:00

Eurozone

Manufacturing PMI

08:30

United Kingdom

Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing

12:30

U.S.

Manufacturing Payrolls

12:30

U.S.

Government Payrolls

12:30

U.S.

Average workweek

12:30

U.S.

Private Nonfarm Payrolls

12:30

U.S.

Labor Force Participation Rate

12:30

U.S.

Average hourly earnings

12:30

U.S.

Unemployment Rate

12:30

U.S.

Nonfarm Payrolls

12:55

U.S.

FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

13:45

U.S.

Manufacturing PMI

14:00

U.S.

Construction Spending

14:00

U.S.

ISM Manufacturing

17:00

U.S.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

19:00

U.S.

Total Vehicle Sales



Fokus tržišta

  • ECB's Weidmann says first ECB rate hike could follow the end of QE more closely than in the U.S
  • Industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28
  • European Commission forecasts Euro Zone inflation will accelerate to 1.6 pct y/y in 2019 from 1.5 pct y/y seen in 2018
  • UK service providers signalled a modest rebound in business activity - Markit
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