Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the UK’s Manufacturing PMI to slide further below the 50-mark in July to 47.0 (mkt 47.6).
“Given the poor outcomes for other European flash PMIs for the month and the growing talk of a hard Brexit, it's difficult to see UK manufacturing activity improving. After the data, we have the next Bank of England decision coming up at midday. Going into the decision, we think that given the change of tone from the Fed and the ECB recently, markets are eager to price in further easing from the BoE as well. Although our base case sees the MPC retaining the reference to gradual and limited rate hikes, we think that markets are likely to look right through any mention of rate hikes as entirely implausible, and just grasp onto any dovish language instead. And given the worsening global backdrop and the increasing concerns around a no-deal Brexit, there should be plenty of dovish language to satisfy markets.”
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