Analysts at ING expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) will confirm a neutral stance on monetary policy at its 10 July meeting, stressing a data-dependent approach.
- "The BoC should continue to highlight the downside risks stemming from trade tensions and slowing global economic activity. Nonetheless, the data flow since the May meeting has been broadly positive, which tends to suggest a cautiously upbeat domestic economic assessment, while signaling little appetite for policy easing. This may be particularly true given the recent boom in inflation and wage growth which should prompt an upside revision in the CPI forecasts as the monetary policy report is published.
- In the aftermath of the meeting, the USD/CAD reaction may be broadly muted, as markets seem to have already priced in most of the positives for the loonie. We continue to expect policy rates to remain untouched over the next 18 months and believe that CAD will stay supported despite possibly facing kick-back from re-escalating trade tensions. Accordingly, we stick to our current USD/CAD forecasts at 1.30 for 4Q19 and 1.28 for 1Q20."