According to analysts at ING, there seems to be a little reason to change the near term view that EUR/USD pair stays offered this summer and will test the 1.10, barring a temporary squeeze of short EUR positions.
“US-China trade tension is unresolved and there is a still a risk that later this month President Trump opts for tariffs on auto imports. Admittedly there are a few green shoots in terms of European growth, but probably not enough to lift Euro area interest rates off the floor. The TLTRO III to be announced by the ECB in June should also cement the view that EUR rates stay lower for longer. A good showing from Salvini’s League in European elections end month also raises the risk of new Italian elections later this year.”
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