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WEEKLY REVIEW: Markets were driven by speculations this week

20 Новембар 2015 Konstantin Meinhardt

Two speculations were in focus this week: speculation that the Fed will start raising its interest rate in December and speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will add further stimulus measures next month.

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WEEKLY REVIEW: This week’s U.S. economic data raised doubts over the Fed’s interest rate hike in December

13 Новембар 2015 Konstantin Meinhardt

Today's U.S. economic data showed that the U.S. economic recovery remains uneven. This week's U.S. economic data was weaker than expected. Retails sales rose slightly in October, while producer prices continued to decline.

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WEEKLY REVIEW: The Fed’s interest rate hike this year – “mission impossible”

30 Октобар 2015 Konstantin Meinhardt

The Fed's monetary policy meeting was in focus this week. The central bank noted that that an interest rate hike in December is still on the table.

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WEEKLY REVIEW: Tough times for the euro are coming

23 Октобар 2015 Konstantin Meinhardt

The euro came under pressure this week on comments by the European Central Bank's (ECB) President Mario Draghi. He said at a press conference on Thursday that the value of the ECB's asset-buying programme will be discussed at the monetary policy meeting in December. He pointed out that the central bank will expand its asset-buying programme if needed to boost inflation toward the 2% target.

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WEEKLY REVIEW: there were no clues for the Fed's monetary policy this week

16 Октобар 2015 Konstantin Meinhardt

The U.S. economic data showed this week that it is unlikely that the Fed will start raising its interest rates this year. Inflationary pressures remain at very low level. Only U.S. consumer price index excluding food and energy rose to 1.9% in September from 1.8% in August. It is unclear if this inflation data will be enough for the Fed's interest rate hike. Fed Governors Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo said this week that they would like to see clear signals that the inflation was accelerating toward the 2% target.

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WEEKLY REVIEW: waiting for clear signals

09 Октобар 2015 Konstantin Meinhardt

The uncertainty about the interest rate hike by the Fed this year remained. Yesterday's minutes of the latest Fed's meeting did not produce any clarity on the Fed's monetary policy. The Fed said that it wanted to have more time to see if the slowdown in the global economy will have a negative effect on the U.S. economy. FOMC members noted that the U.S. labour market continued to improve, while the inflation remained at low levels.

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WEEKLY REVIEW: the interest rate hike by the Fed recedes into the far distance

02 Октобар 2015 Konstantin Meinhardt

Today's U.S. labour market data makes it clear that the interest rate hike by the Fed this year is unlikely. According to the U.S. Labor Department, the U.S. economy added 142,000 jobs in September, missing expectations for a rise of 203,000 jobs, after a gain of 136,000 jobs in August. August's figure was revised down from a rise of 173,000 jobs. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% in September, in line with expectations. Average hourly earnings were flat in September, missing forecasts of a 0.2% gain, after a 0.4% increase in August.

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WEEKLY REVIEW: The Fed tries to convince market participants that its interest rate decision was misunderstood

25 Септембар 2015 Konstantin Meinhardt

The Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged last week, saying that the slowdown in the global economy and low inflation expectations were main reasons for this decision. The whole statement was dovish. But the Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in a speech at the University of Massachusetts on Thursday that she expects that the Fed will start raising its interest rates by the end of the year, followed by a gradual pace of interest rate hikes.

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WEEKLY REVIEW: The Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged, but markets are likely to remain volatile

18 Септембар 2015 Konstantin Meinhardt

The Fed released its interest rate decision yesterday. The Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged, saying that the slowdown in the global economy and low inflation expectations were main reasons for this decision.

FOMC members voted 9-1 to keep interest rates unchanged. Only Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker voted to raise interest rate by 0.25%.

GDP for 2016 and 2017 were downgraded.

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WEEKLY REVIEW: To raise or not to raise – the question to be answered by the Fed

11 Септембар 2015 Konstantin Meinhardt

The Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision next week. Market participants were cautious this week as the U.S. economic data was not able to clarify if the Fed starts raising its interest rate in September or not. The U.S. labour market continued to strengthen. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 05 in the U.S. declined by 6,000 to 275,000 from 281,000 in the previous week, in line with expectations.

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Tržišni fokus

  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • Industrial production fell by 1.7% in the euro area (EA19) and by 1.3% in the EU28 m/m
  • China's exports and imports in December declined at the worst rates in two years
  • IMF cuts global growth outlook, cites trade war and weak Europe
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